Tuesday, April 28, 2009

A TRNC Precedent?

An interesting (certainly by the standards of an int'l law journal's website - cf. the concept of "law school hot" - and perhaps even really interesting) discussion of last year's war in Georgia and its possible repercussions:

I have read in the blogosphere and received emails myself claiming that the events in Georgia require a rethinking and rewriting of the laws governing the use of force and the acquisition of territory. I am rather sceptical but would welcome articles arguing the opposite. To me, it is a case of ‘plus ça change, plus ça reste la même chose‘.

But let us first address the depressing politics - this time demoralizing world politics perfectly personified by some celestial Central Casting.

First, the breathtakingly cerebrally challenged Saakashvili, whose every move, including throwing the match into the dry tinder, has militated against his desired entry of Georgia into NATO. The conspiracy minded may well claim that he was a Russian agent. His one redeeming feature were his blustering sophomoric news conferences which supplied relief to a very serious situation - comic relief, that is, provided by the squirming dignitaries forced to stand, ex officio, by his side and suffer each of his ‘I told you so…!’

Then we were treated to a rather new scary spectacle - US officials palpably and transparently aware of their real and perceived weakness, also of their lack of credibility, speaking loudly whilst carrying a broken reed. It is a photo-finish as to which America gives us more of a shiver - blustering, over-confident, but strong, or blustering, under-confident, and weak.

And then there was the redoubtable Sarkozy and Merkel (but hardly Solana…!) making all the right noises of ‘engagement diplomacy’, but unable to paper over the deep internal divisions within the Union, and therefore manifesting again Europe’s long inability to translate its economic might into political and military capital - so what’s new? Only Putin comes out entirely in control - hopefully, in the long run, a Pyrrhic victory.

The Russians will not withdraw from the two rump entities any time soon and no one will push them either. Have the Superpowers not been somewhat more equal than everyone else for some time now? That does not make the invasion any more legal than that of, say, Turkey into Cyprus and the status of the rump ’statelets’ is indeed likely to remain more like that of Northern Cyprus than that of Bangladesh. This may not be the time for talking of ’shifting paradigms’ (a less elegant phrase might be ‘koshering the pig’) but perhaps it is rather even more important to hold fast to the old ones oft consecrated in their breech. But I am sure there are other views out there and EJIL or EJIL:Talk! would welcome hearing them.
When I first read this earlier in the year, it made think of an article I saw back in December which made me think of the idea of a "TRNC precedent" (the phrase that popped into my mind, as a natural counterpoint to the idea of a "Kosovo precedent" which has been widely touted by secessionists the world over, but especially in the post-Soviet space) which is alluded to by the author above.

And now there's been an interesting follow-up to that article I saw in December: it seems that Greeks forced out of Northern Cyprus can lay claim to their land in the European Court of Justice. I wonder if this will have an impact on real estate prices in Abkhazia (especially since the registration of property claims by people displaced in the conflict there has been going on for years)?
Greek Cypriots 'can reclaim land'

The EU's top court has backed the right of a Greek Cypriot to reclaim land in Turkish-controlled northern Cyprus that has since been sold to a UK couple.

BBC News, 28 April 2009

Meletis Apostolides was one of thousands of Greek Cypriots who fled his home when Turkish forces invaded in 1974, following a Greek-inspired coup.

The land was later sold to Linda and David Orams, who built a villa on it.

The European Court of Justice says a ruling in a Cypriot court that the villa must be demolished is applicable.

Even if the ECJ ruling cannot be enacted because the land is under Turkish Cypriot control, it means Mr Apostolides will be able to pursue a claim for compensation in a UK court.

It could also open the way for hundreds more Greek Cypriots to demand restitution for properties they were forced to flee.

Many Britons and other foreigners have invested in property in northern Cyprus, despite the legal ownership still being in some doubt.

Mr Apostolides said he was "very much" pleased with the EU court's ruling, and that it was "what we expected".

He added: "This is a difficult issue that has to be decided by the courts."

Property boom

The European Court of Justice ruling on Tuesday said that the decision of a Cypriot court in Nicosia was applicable in the north, even though Cyprus does not exercise control there.

It also said that one EU country - in this case the UK - must recognise judgments made in the courts of another.

The Republic of Cyprus joined the EU in 2004.

EU law was suspended in northern Cyprus for the purposes of Cyprus's accession, but lawyers argued successfully that the Orams' civil case still falls within the scope of the EU regulation.

Northern Cyprus is self-governing and still occupied by the Turkish army, but is not recognised internationally.

Nevertheless, it has become a thriving tourist destination in recent years, and house-building has boomed.

Some of those houses have been sold by Turkish Cypriots to foreigners, even though the land they were built on was once owned by Greek Cypriots and its legal status remained uncertain.

Property disputes dating back to 1974 have been one of the main obstacles to efforts to reunify Cyprus.

Correspondents say dispossessed Greek Cypriots are now likely to launch more legal battles, which in turn may harden opposition to reunification among Turkish Cypriots.

Read More...

Russia's approach to NGOs: the "tarnished image problem" and "preventing color revolutions"

I happened upon this (admittedly somewhat outdated) paper (pdf) titled "Contextual and Legislative Analysis of the Russian Law on NGOs," by an American named Josh Machleder who was working as an Alfa Fellow at the INDEM Foundation back when this law was big news. I haven't read it closely, but the section headings make it look quite interesting.

Update April 29 - looks like this topic is still current, here's a recent piece on it from OpenDemocracy that I just saw today.

Read More...

Monday, April 20, 2009

Battling Historical Narratives


Moldova in Myths and Legends, Chisinau, April 14.

I already pointed out how the government-run newspaper Moldova Suverana equated the protesters / rioters on April 7th with fascist Romanians retaking Chisinau in 1941. Now I have seen the flip side of this exaggeration of historical parallels, in a message sent around a few days ago by an opposition activist:
The Moldovan state authorities' violence against protesters is without precedent. Unlawful arrests, preventing access to a lawyer, torture, sexual abuse towards arrested young women are comparable only with the Soviet times in 1940s, when the country was militarily incorporated in the USSR along with the Baltic States.

Read More...

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Making Sense of Recent Events in Moldova


Wondering what happened, Chisinau, April 12.

The international community continues to digest the events of the past couple of weeks in Moldova. Statements from the UN can be found here and here, and Amnesty International has expressed its concern here and here (see here for AI Moldova's website and here for a more in-depth memo covering Amnesty's concerns), and offers you a chance to sign an online petition calling on the Moldovan authorities to protect detainees from human rights abuses here.

A webcast of an event held last week by the Moldova Foundation in DC entitled "Moldova's "Twitter Revolution" and Post-election Political Crisis" may also be worth watching, although I haven't had time to look at it yet.

Nicu Popescu had an op-ed in the FT on Friday (see full text here also) which does a good job of setting the context and makes things seem rather dire:
Just before Easter, as European diplomats were packing for the holidays, a crisis erupted in the forgotten and usually quiet Moldova that will require their intervention to sort out. Without a quick political solution, the European Union could face a new consolidated autocracy like Belarus on its border. Relations with Russia would deteriorate further and the launch of the eastern partnership initiative, under which the bloc aims to strengthen ties with six ex-Soviet states, would be undermined.

The trouble started two days after elections on April 5, which delivered a third straight victory to the Communist party. A minority of violent protesters broke into the parliament and the presidential palace, prompting the government to accuse Romania, an EU member state, of plotting a coup d'état in Moldova. More importantly, it also launched an indiscriminate crackdown on opposition parties, peaceful protesters and independent journalists. [...]

Russia quickly reacted to the crisis with political and practical support for the government's crackdown. President Dmitry Medvedev and the Russian foreign ministry have made numerous statements offering their backing to Vladimir Voronin, Moldova's president. For Russia, a more isolated Moldova is a more likely political ally.

The consequences of the crisis for the eastern partnership could be dire. Moldova is more dependent on the EU than any other eastern neighbour. More than 50 per cent of its trade is with the EU, the country receives significant EU assistance, most Moldovan emigrants work in the EU and almost three-quarters of Moldova's population support EU integration.

If the EU cannot influence Moldova, broader questions about its relevance in the eastern neighbourhood will emerge. The eastern partnership summit planned for early May could be a public relations disaster if it looks like the 27 EU heads of state are conferring legitimacy to a bunch of autocrats, killing the policy politically before it has been properly launched.

The long-term consequences of the crisis could be even more far-reaching. Moldova already has more than 100,000 Romanian citizens and Traian Basescu, Romania's president, has pledged to facilitate issuing passports. The EU faces the prospect of Moldova becoming a Russian political satellite with hundreds of thousands of EU citizens subject to a repressive regime. The EU has never faced such a dilemma. [...]

The genie of Moldovan authoritarianism is out of the bottle. Simple EU persuasion will not be enough to push it back. Huge international pressure forced even Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe to share power with the opposition in 2008. The job in Moldova might be much easier, but only if the EU cares enough to act.


Nicu has also written in recent days about the prospect of Moldova's isolation and the fact the Moldova now faces, in addition to the need to reunify with its breakaway region of Transdniestria, "the need for a second reintegration: the reintegration of a society divided by violence."

In addition, I wanted to highlight an op-ed piece run on Foreign Policy's website by Cristina Batog, who writes the following:
Because of [the opposition's] lack of cohesion and leadership, the protests have been doomed from the start, and the way events unfolded has only resulted in the tarnishing of everything the protesters stand for -- unification with Romania, the importance of a youth voice, and the ideal of democratic protest itself. Almost every election in Moldova has been accompanied by protests in Chisinau, typically initiated by young professionals and students. But this time, the protests quickly spun out of control. Whether you believe the opposition's argument that Moldovan security services and the communist government provoked the clash, or the government's argument that Romania manipulated the protesters, the results were counterproductive to say the least. Government buildings were vandalized, demonstrators clashed with police, and hundreds of protesters were beaten and arrested.

The opposition has the right idea politically, but the wrong idea tactically. Instead of taking to the streets, it should accept that it lost the elections fairly and should start creating a united force that can challenge the communists through democratic procedures and institutions. Likewise, the communist leadership fails to realize that it is fighting an uphill battle: The young people jailed in droves are the best and brightest of Moldovan society and will eventually become the republic's elite. Also, the Communist Party's anti-Romanian ideology is unsustainable and self-defeating in the long run. The communists should stop criminalizing pro-Romanian ideas and accept that Romanian history and language are an integral part of the Moldovan national identity.
Also worth reading are a couple of recent articles from Jamestown's Vlad Socor: "Moldovan Authorities Caught Unprepared by Violent Riots" and "Moldova's Body Politic in Gridlock After Elections and Riots."

The FT had an interesting piece quoting Speaker of Parliament and possible next President Marian Lupu admitting and apparently rationalizing human rights abuses committed by police in Chisinau:
Marian Lupu, speaker of Moldova’s parliament, said the amnesty from prosecution announced on Wednesday by Vladimir Voronin, Moldova’s president, must apply to protesters who contested the Communists’ election victory two weeks ago as well as to the police who beat them in holding cells.

“The president said there would be an amnesty for everybody involved,” he told the Financial Times. “Logically, if you forgive one side then you have to forgive the other side as well.” [...]

Mr Lupu said police had reacted emotionally to the injuries sustained by their colleagues. “They visited their colleagues in hospital, some 200 of them, and saw how badly injured they were.”
The FT is also on top of a very important developing story involving something that's been of interest to me for some time - Romania's citizenship policy with respect to Moldovans

I also highly recommend the ongoing English-language coverage - inter alia, of police (mis)treatment of detainees and of the potential for Moldova to develop in authoritarian direction - by Dumitru Minzarari.

Russian pundit Dmitry Babich also had a fairly interesting piece about recent events.

And if you read Russian, I highly recommend checking out the two-part post by Alexei Ghertescu, a young lawyer in Chisinau, in which he recounts his own experience of the events of April 7th. If I have time, I will translate his very interesting account of that fateful day.

As for my own thoughts about what happened in Chisinau, I am still trying to figure everything out, a task which hasn't been aided by the fact that one of my best friends from high school has been in London over the weekend for his first ever visit to the city.

I do know one thing. Today was the day when just about everyone (both Russian and Romanian Orthodox churches, as far as I know) in Moldova celebrates Easter. So I guess I can just wish everyone there a happy Easter and hope that the holiday brought at least a bit of a sense of peace to the country's people, who have experienced far too much fear in recent weeks.

Read More...

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Photos from Chisinau


Construction workers repairing the Presidential Palace on April 12 discard a damaged pane of glass

I have uploaded some of my photos from Chisinau to this set on Flickr. The set includes a number of photos from the opposition rally last Sunday the 12th and also some of the damage done to government buildings downtown. Nothing too special, but it's Chisinau the way I saw it on this trip.

I'm still trying to come up with a narrative on which to hang all of my interview notes, so if anyone's actually waiting with bated breath for that, I'm afraid you may have to wait another day. In the meantime, below is an absolute slew of articles sent around by the Moldova Foundation today - yes, I'm too lazy to do the clipping for you, dear readers, since it's already been done, albeit rather selectively. Click on the words "Read More..." below to, well, read more.

One thing I would note regarding a couple of the articles below that mention Natalia Morari and suggest she's either in some kind of detention or (quoting her) on the run, underground in Moldova (actually, on my last full day in Chisinau I heard a rumor she was hiding in Transdniestria!) - it's strange that neither of those articles points out that on her blog, her husband has posted a message stating that she is fine and at home in Chisinau under house arrest and is incommunicado due to being under some sort of gag order. Obviously it's not the gospel truth just because it's on her blog, but you'd think one of the journos would have looked it up and at least mentioned the contradiction between what Ms. Morari is saying to the Telegraph and what her husband is saying on LJ.

Oh, and one more article that's worth reading but didn't make the selection below is this NYT piece, which does as good a job as the newspaper article format allows of examining the thorny question of Moldovan national identity in light of last week's events.


LIBERALS, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS AND OUR MOLDOVA REFUSE TO PARTICIPATE IN VOTE RE-COUNTING
Infotag (Moldova)
April 15, 2009

The three main opposition forces that have won seats in the next Parliament of Moldova – the Liberal Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Moldova Noastra Alliance – have announced they will not have a finger in re-counting the ballots cast at the April 5 parliamentary elections in this republic.

MNA leader Serafim Urechean stated at a news conference in Infotag today that the vote re-counting, scheduled by the Central Election Commission for April 15 to last only one day, is “but a farce organized by the Communist Party… The Communists are undertaking an attempt to legitimize the April 5 voting returns that were rigged. We are checking voter registers, but shall not participate in the Wednesday’s ballot re-counting, the more so that nobody can say what has happened to the sacks with ballot-papers since the election day”.

Urechean expressed regret that the vote re-count will suspend the voter-register check work being carried out by the said opposition parties.

“We would like to draw your attention to one thing: the vote recount, initiated by the Communist Party, will be carried out by [over 20 thousand] members of electoral commissions all over the republic – certainly for the public means. And the opposition parties are examining voter registers all by themselves and on party money”, said Serafim Urechean.

Liberal Party Chairman Mihai Ghimpu voiced apprehension that new violations may be committed during the vote recounting tomorrow.

“We know that sacks with ballot-papers are stored somewhere in the Central Election Commission. We are not ruling out that a ballot substitution may be organized. As you all know, the Communists are now in a desperate quest for one parliamentary mandate, which they are, so far, missing for electing a new president independently”, said Mihai Ghimpu.

As Infotag has already reported, the re-counting idea was put forward by the Communist Party Chairman, President of Moldova Vladimir Voronin, and the Constitutional Court and the Central Election Commission have approved of such recount.

…DO NOT RECOGNIZE ELECTION OUTCOME, AND CALL FOR RERUN

Chisinau. The above-mentioned three main opposition parties will demand that the outcome of the April 5 parliamentary election be declared null and void, and will call for a new election, LDPM leader Vlad Filat stated at the news conference he held jointly with the leaders of the Liberal Party and the MNA.

"The opposition parties have gathered enough evidence that the election outcome was rigged," Filat said. "While checking electoral rolls we have found out that people who died many years ago participated in the election. Minors and people who have been working abroad for many years have also been included in election lists and subsequently cast their ballots”.

"He said that the opposition would in the near future present a joint report on the results of checking election lists.

"We will present the mechanism of falsification of election results and will show that some 400,000 additional people were included in election lists, and that 'dead souls', as well as minors and those who have gone abroad cast their ballots in the recent election," Filat said.

At the same time, the Liberal Party, the LDPM and the MNA expressed deep concern about the fate of young people arrested in the wake of the 6-7 protest rallies in Chisinau. The three parties asked for their unconditional release and pledged to bring evidence showing the real provocateurs behind the 7 April mass riots. The Liberal Party, the LDPM and the MNA also demanded access to the Teleradio-Moldova company but so far they have received no answer.

At the April 5 , the parties won together 41 out of 101 parliamentary seats. The other 60 seats were won by the ruling Communist Party.

* * *

DEMONSTRATIONS PROMPT MOLDOVAN RECOUNT
By Thomas Escritt, Financial Times (UK)
April 12 2009

Moldova’s Constitutional Court on Sunday agreed to stage a recount of last week’s election after thousands of people took to the streets to protest against alleged police brutality.

President Vladimir Voronin asked the court to consider a recount on the grounds that it could re-establish calm after the ransacking of Moldova’s parliament last week following claims that parliamentary elections were rigged in favour of the Communists.

Some 5,000 protesters gathered in Chisinau’s main square on Sunday, summoned by the strains of pop music that all but drowned out a choir singing to the Palm Sunday procession in front of the capital’s Orthodox cathedral.

Iurie Leanca, a former minister from the Liberal Democrat party, one of three opposition parties that contests the results of last Sunday’s elections, said: “The aim is to focus on the civil rights violations. Young people have been beaten in police stations ... Some parents still can’t find out where their children are.”

It emerged on Sunday that one protester had died in police custody. The interior ministry denied opposition claims that the man had been beaten and blamed the death on gas used for crowd control.

“The more they beat us, the stronger we become,” said Vlad Filat, Liberal Democrat chairman. “The more they violate our human rights, the stronger is our will to fight.”

The government says 252 people have been taken into custody since Tuesday, and 121 have been placed under house arrest. Charges have been filed against 286, while 17 minors were cautioned.

Ala Meleca, interior ministry spokesman, said claims of police brutality had not been investigated, since none had taken place.

A senior official in the prime minister’s office attacked the European Union’s “passivity” in the face of last week’s rioting.

“If Moldova turns into Belarus, it will be the EU’s fault,” the official told the Financial Times, drawing a parallel with the authoritarian former Soviet state that enjoys close relations with Moscow. The official also criticised the conciliatory tone of Javier Solana, the EU’s foreign policy chief, who last week labelled the storming of parliament “unacceptable” while stressing the importance of the right to peaceful protest.

Foreign observers signed off on the elections, in which the ruling Communist party won 49 per cent of the vote, but the opposition claims biased media coverage, ballot stuffing and travel restrictions skewed the outcome.

Peaceful protests turned violent last Tuesday, culminating in the storming of the parliament and presidency buildings in central Chisinau.

Communist party officials accuse the opposition of fomenting unrest with the aid of neighbouring country Romania.

Additional reporting by agencies in Chisinau

* * *

MOLDOVA STARTS RECOUNT AS OSCE SEES ABUSES
The Associated Press (US)
16 April 2009

Moldovan authorities began a recount Wednesday of votes cast in the country's disputed April 5 parliamentary elections, an official said.

Iurie Ciocan, a spokesman for the Central Election Committee, said results would be announced Friday. Initial results showed the Communist Party with about 50 percent of the vote.

In Vienna, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said it had verified some claims that authorities abused demonstrators who protested the election results. The organization requested access to detention facilities and a meeting with a prosecutor.

Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek will also visit Chisinau on April 22 to assess the situation, the Moldovan president's office said Wednesday. The Czech Republic currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union.

Also Wednesday, the Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office said it would extradite two Moldovans suspected of organizing anti-government protests last week.

Gabriel Stati and Aurel Marinescu are being held in Odessa, where they were detained Thursday, said Yuriy Boichenko, a spokesman for the prosecutor's office. He said the two men might be handed over Thursday. Stati is the son of Anatol Stati, one of Moldova's richest men, whose investments in oil have contributed to his estimated wealth of $2.63 billion.

Chisinau's mayor Dorin Chirtoaca claimed Wednesday that a second person had died from beatings that he suffered in detention after the April 7 protests. Moldovan prosecutors said they would investigate the death of Ion Tibuleac, 22, who was buried Saturday.

* * *

U.N. CALLS FOR RESTRAINT, PEACEFUL DISSENT
UPI (USA)
April 14, 2009


The United Nations has called on security authorities in Moldova to show restraint following an outbreak of violence in recent protests.

U.N. officials in Moldova echoed a call Monday from U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon for police to maintain order but show restraint from taking actions that might provoke more violence.

Following Moldova's parliamentary elections on April 5, young protesters took to the streets of the country's capital, Chisinau. The protests turned violent and prompted a call from the United Nations for protesters to dissent peacefully, the United Nations reported.

Ban called on leaders in Moldova to resolve differences through constructive dialogue in order to avoid ongoing unrest.

"Citizens must exercise their rights in a peaceful manner, and for their part, authorities must exercise restraint in policing demonstrations and guarantee fundamental human rights, including the right to physical and psychological integrity and the right to freedom of opinion, expression, association and assembly," the U.N. news release said.

* * *

MOLDOVA DETAINEES ABUSED, SAYS UN OFFICIAL
By Thomas Escritt, Financial Times (UK)
April 14 2009

Hundreds of young people detained after anti-government protests in Moldova have been subjected to "cruel, inhuman or degrading" treatment and denied access to legal advice, a United Nations official says.

Detainees described being beaten with clubs, water bottles, fists and feet, according to a confidential report that includes evidence provided by the UN human rights adviser in the country and seen by the Financial times.

The report says there is abundant evidence prisoners were being held in inhumane conditions with 25 to 28 individuals in 8m-square cells, denied food and given only limited access to water and basic sanitary facilities.

Hundreds of young people in Chisinau were arrested last week after protests against the outcome of elections 10 days ago turned violent when a group of protesters stormed the parliament and presidency buildings, setting the former ablaze. The protesters claim the Communist party, which won 49 per cent of the vote, stole the election.

The government declined to comment on the report, but referred to an earlier statement by the interior ministry that there would be no investigation into police brutality since no such cases had taken place.

Edwin Berry, the UN human rights adviser, said he had not written the report but confirmed it was based on evidence he gathered during a prison visit made on Saturday. "I did see evidence of acts of cruel and unusual punishment," he said.

The report is based on a visit to a single detention centre. A delegation consisting of Mr Berry and representatives of the country's National Preventative Mechanism on Torture, an officially sanctioned group of human rights organisations, was denied access to two other jails, in spite of legislation that allows them to conduct unannounced visits to any detention centre.

The report says detainees were "brought before a judge in blocks of six" and "collectively charged . . . [by means of] a template document. At no time did [the] detainees have access to a legal council".

Moldova's Constitutional Court on Sunday agreed to stage a recount of last week's election after thousands of people took to the streets to protest against alleged police brutality and mass arrests.

The recount takes place on Wednesday.

The communists, who are popular with older people and the many Slavic-speakers marooned in the former Soviet Republic after the collapse of the Soviet Union, have presided over eight years of strong growth in Moldova, a country of 4.4m sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine.

The communist president, Vladimir Voronin, has said last week's violence formed part of a Romanian-backed attempted "coup" and he has questioned the loyalty of the many Moldovans who hold dual Romanian citizenship.

* * *

MOLDOVA EXPELLING AMERICAN HEAD OF NDI OFFICE
Interfax (Russia)
Apr 15, 2009

A Chisinau court ordered on Wednesday that American Alex Grigorjevs, resident director of the Moldovan office of the U.S. National Democratic Institute, be expelled
from Moldova, his lawyer Costal Tense said.

On Tuesday, two Moldovan policemen arrested Grigorjevs at his office in central Chisinau and took him to court, Tanase told Interfax.

"After a personal identification procedure, he was handed a summons to court for Wednesday. On Wednesday, the court ruled that Alex Grigorjevs must leave Moldovan territory as he has been in the country without permission," Tanase said.

The lawyer confirmed that Grigorjevs' permit for residence in Moldova expired in September 2008.

"However, in August he asked for his residence permit to be extended. The authorities did not respond. He advised the Moldovan foreign minister, Andrei Stratan, about this, and Stratan confirmed that everything would be all right," Tanase said.

The lawyer said he would appeal the ruling.

Grigorjevs has been posted on Moldova since the NDI's Moldovan office opened in 2004.


* * *

EU ACCUSED OF TURNING BLIND EYE OVER MOLDOVA
By Thomas Escritt, Financial Times (UK)
April 15 2009

Vlad Filat, leader of one of three parties that are challenging the results of Moldova’s parliamentary elections has accused the European Union of turning a blind eye to mounting evidence of human rights abuses in the country.

Concern is growing for Natalia Morari, the Russian journalist who organised last Tuesday’s protest using social networking sites and SMS texts. Ms Morar, who has been in hiding, was reported arrested on Tuesday. “I’m in a holding cell going to court in 45 minutes,” she told the Financial Times by text message. Her whereabouts are not now known.

Mr Filat, leader of the opposition Liberal Democrat party, said the European Union’s response to mass arrests of opposition protesters in the wake of the elections had been inadequate.

“We understand that there are geopolitical realities and that they have to engage with Voronin [Moldova’s Communist president], but the serious human rights abuses we have seen over the past 10 days are more urgent,” he told the Financial Times in an interview.

The accusation came ahead of the electoral commission’s announcement on Wednesday evening of the results of a vote recount which opposition parties dismiss as a tactical feint by the Communists.

The opposition says electoral rolls were padded out with the names of the dead and people who left Moldova long ago. Attempts to vet the electoral rolls were halted by a court decision on Tuesday evening.

Moldova’s ruling Communist party won 49 per cent of the vote on April 5 in an election opposition parties say was stolen.

Peaceful student protests that began on Tuesday rapidly descended into violence when an apparently small and unrelated group stormed the parliament and presidency buildings, setting the former ablaze. The government admits some 300 protesters have since been arrested, but the opposition claims more than 1,000 are in jail.

Mr Filat said concern about driving Moldova’s government closer to Russia was overshadowing concern for the detainees, many of whom have been beaten, according to a UN report.

“There are politicians who are concerned about values and rights and politicians who care about strategy and geopolitics in Brussels. But how can US and EU politicians talk about geopolitics when their policies are based on very different values,” Mr Filat said.

Statements from Brussels so far have condemned last Tuesday’s violence. “The important thing is to get the political process back on track,” an EU official in Chisinau told the Financial Times.

Moldova is divided between speakers of Moldovan, a variant of Romanian, and Slavic-speakers, many of whom were marooned in the former Soviet republic of 4.4m after the fall of the Soviet Union.

Mr Voronin, a former Soviet general, maintained good relations with Moscow until a split over the future of the breakaway province of Transdnistria in 2005. The opposition parties, which are supported by Moldovan speakers, say the Communists’ commitment to European integration is only rhetorical.

* * *

ROMANIA TO TAKE SITUATION IN R. MOLDOVA TO ECHR, EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT
Financiarul (Romania)
April 16, 2009

Romania will address the ECHR with respect to limiting the right to the free movement of the Romanian citizens in the Republic of Moldova and it will also call on the European Parliament for an inquiry, President Traian Basescu told the public television TVR late on Tuesday.

'You can be sure there was no joke in the speech I delivered (to the Parliament - editor's note) when I said we'll notify the international courts. The restriction of the right to the free movement of the Romanian citizens, the violation of the agreement between the EU and Moldova will be one of the topics we'll put forward to the ECHR.

The Romanian citizens were deprived of a right they had, the Romanian citizens were searched, the Romanian journalists were deprived of the right to do their job', Basescu stressed.

He said Romania will notify the ECHR with respect to the Moldovan authorities' attitude towards the Romanian journalists, since 'what happened to the Romanian journalists in the Republic of Moldova - they were arrested, detained, searched, some were denied entry to the Republic of Moldova - are things we are going to present the ECHR'.

The president also said Romania was likely to ask for an inquiry by the European Parliament. 'Maybe it is too early and not too political to speak of the second move we plan to make. We want a European inquiry by the European Parliament, where the foreign policy commission or the plenary sitting can make such a decision. We are trying to carry out both alternatives and I hope tomorrow I'll manage to hold the exploratory talks', he added.

Basescu pointed out the main goal of Romania is that the abuse be found against the Romanian citizens or those who have double citizenship; the issue in Chisinau is to certify the seats of the parliamentarians who have double citizenship - Romanian and Moldovan, he underscored.

'This is another reason why we'll go to the ECHR. The Romanian citizenship is not a second rate citizenship. It is European citizenship. The citizens who have such citizenship should not be discriminated', he said.

Basescu added there is not yet a full evaluation of what is going on in the neighbouring country.'
At that meeting to which I invited the foreign minister and the prime minister, the day after the Chisinau events, one of the things we established as being a priority was that we be informed about how many citizens who have Romanian citizenship are there in the jails of the Interior Ministry in Chisinau. Not even today have we got an answer from the Chisinau authorities', Basescu said.

The president stressed that Romania's attitude towards the Republic of Moldova was temperate in the past as well, when two clerics and two diplomats had been expelled.

'There are attitudes and actions of the Chisinau Government to which we did not respond. It takes the acceptance of both sides to build a curtain. Can you image how things would have got complicated if we had matched our answer and had expelled the Moldovan ambassador, if we had introduced a visa tax for the Moldovan citizens seeking to come to Romania', Basescu said.

* * *

ROMANIA SLAMS VORONIN ATTEMPT TO RAISE ‘IRON CURTAIN’
By Mihai Barbu, Nine o'Clock (Romania)
April 15, 2009

Romania will not give R. of Moldova President Vladimir Voronin the opportunity to raise an iron curtain over Prut River, President Traian Basescu said on Monday evening after a meeting at Cotroceni Palace with education trade unionists.

“He himself can decide or try to raise an iron curtain over Prut River. We will not give him the opportunity to do this, because we will have a European behaviour, a responsible behaviour, not to President Voronin, but to the four million Romanians who live in Moldova, the four million Romanians, citizens of the Republic of Moldova, who are part of this people,” Basescu said.

He added that he kept silent over the topic so far, in spite of opposition parties’ criticism, because he wanted to have an overall view of what happened in the R. of Moldova. “I thought that giving a rushed response to President Voronin was exactly the kind of game he wanted to draw us in,” he said.

Basescu refused to make further comments, saying he would address all issues related to the Moldova events and the “ungrounded accusations Chisinau authorities, including Voronin, brought against Romania,” in his Parliament address.

Chisinau last week was gripped by violent protests against the ruling Communist Party’s victory in the legislative elections. One person was killed, dozens were injured and over 200 were arrested following a day of clashes between demonstrators and police, in which protesters stormed the parliament building and President Voronin’s offices. The opposition insisted that the legislative elections, which were won by the Communists, were rigged and asked for a repeat of the ballot.

Voronin directly accused Romania of being behind the protests and immediately moved to expel the Romanian ambassador to Moldova and to introduce visas for Romanians. Romania rejected the allegations as “provocation”, but underlined that it will not take similar measures against Moldovan diplomatic personnel in Bucharest.

Geoana: Romania must redefine its position in Moldova ties

Meanwhile yesterday, during a debate on the Moldova events, Senate Speaker Mircea Geoana underlined that Romania should redefine its position in the current international context and in its ties with the Republic of Moldova. Geoana said Romania is somehow isolated in the EU and underlined that this is proven by the weak response of European states to anti-Romanian attitudes in Chisinau.

“The neighbour we have the best ties with at the moment is the Black Sea. We have an obligation to the Republic of Moldova and it is high time we redefine our position to these events,” Geoana said. He added that Romania is facing difficult ties with both Moldova and Russia at the moment.

Geoana also said that both at Brussels and Washington, there is low interest in regional developments, not only in R. of Moldova, but also in Ukraine and Georgia, which are also facing a difficult period.

The debate was also attended by FM Cristian Diaconescu, the head of the Social-Democrat Party’s National Council, Adrian Nastase, the head of the Senate’s foreign affairs committee, Titus Corlatean and several politicians, analysts and NGO representatives.

Nastase, a former foreign minister and prime minister, criticized President Basescu for the current ‘poor state’ of Romania’s foreign policy and said he expected the head of state’s Parliament address, scheduled later on Tuesday evening, to be an “image exercise, some sort of hysteric circus”.

A similar opinion was voiced by ex President Emil Constantinescu, who said in an interview to RFI that Romania’s neighboring policies have failed and that Basescu’s speech in Parliament would only be meant to impress the public. “In my opinion, the president doesn’t know what to do, neither he nor the government has any kind of strategy” regarding Moldova, he said. In an earlier statement, Constantinescu protested the “repressive and illegitimate” actions taken by Moldovan authorities to repress opposition demonstrations and called on Amnesty International, the Council of Europe and the OSCE to intervene. Also yesterday, Chamber of Deputies Speaker Roberta Anastase said she decided to sent a letter to her EU counterparts, to draw attention on the events in Chisinau, which “proved the undemocratic nature” of Voronin’s rule. Anastase voiced deep concern over the actions of the Moldovan government and the country’s democratic perspectives.

She also criticized the authorities’ “brutal and abusive” actions against demonstrators and the measures taken against foreign journalists. Her comments came as on Monday evening, a spokesperson for the PSD, Cristian Dumitrescu, said his party was going to ask the Council of Europe, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the United Nations to dispatch missions to R. of Moldova so as to clarify all allegations of human rights violations.

Tension still high in Moldova

The three largest opposition parties in Moldova – the Liberal Democrats, the Liberals and Our Moldova Alliance, yesterday demanded that the April 5 polls be cancelled and new elections be held, saying they have enough evidence to prove that the elections were rigged. “We checked the lists of voters and found that several people who died years ago or who have been living abroad for a long time were on these lists,” the head of Liberal-Democrats, Vlad Filat said.

The votes will be recounted today, at the request of President Voronin. Opposition parties charge that Voronin hopes the communists will obtain one more seat in Parliament after a recount, so as to be able to impose the next president.

Meanwhile, allegations of abuse and violence against people detained following last week’s protests continued. The family of a young man who was arrested and beaten up by police agents said they were going to sue the Chisinau police, while the head of the Moldovan Center for Human Rights said that three children, who were also detained, without their parents’ knowledge, were “put under a lot of pressure.”

Chisinau Mayor and Liberal leader Dorin Chirtoaca said that the Moldovan police are trying to hide the ‘ill treatment’ detainees were subjected to, by moving them from Chisinau to other police offices across the country or to unknown locations.

In an online discussion with HotNews readers, Chirtoaca said those who commit these severe acts against citizens should be tried for crimes against humanity at The Hague.

On Monday evening, the Moldovan Foreign Ministry withdrew the accreditation of a correspondent of the Romanian public television to Chisinau. The decision was heavily criticized by the Romanian public TV channel.

* * *

MOLDOVAN OPPOSITION TO BOYCOTT RECOUNT, CALLS FOR NEW VOTE
AFP (France)
April 14, 2009

Leaders of Moldova's main opposition parties said Tuesday they would boycott a recount of disputed legislative elections, calling it a sham and demanding a new vote.

"The recount is a farce which the Communists thought up in order to legalize violations that occurred during the election," Serafim [Urechian], head of the Our Moldova party, told reporters.

"The opposition will not participate in the recount," he added, speaking at a joint press conference with leaders of two other opposition parties.

The leaders of Our Moldova, the Liberal Party and the Liberal Democratic Party called instead for a repeat of the disputed April 5 election in Moldova, an impoverished former Soviet republic wedged between Ukraine and Romania.

This week, elections officials said they would conduct the recount Wednesday and finish it in one day, while Moldova's Communist President Vladimir Voronin said the recount would restore stability.

Together the three opposition parties won about 35% of the vote, compared to about 50% won by the Communists, official results showed.

But allegations that the Communist Party had falsified the vote sparked street demonstrations last week, including one in which young protesters stormed and ransacked parliament.

The opposition says that voter lists included dead people and Moldovans working abroad.

* * *

MOLDOVA PRESIDENT CALLS FOR AMNESTY FOR PROTESTERS
Reuters (USA)
April 15, 2009

Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin urged legal authorities today to proclaim an amnesty for people detained while taking part in anti-communist demonstrations, except for criminals and repeat offenders.

''I call on the competent bodies to carry out a general amnesty and call for an end to all forms of prosecution against participants in street protests,'' Voronin said in comments broadcast before a televised address to the nation.

''Representatives of the criminal world and repeat offenders must remain in prison.'' About 200 people were detained after violent protests last week against alleged vote rigging in an election won by the Communists, and international groups have since accused the authorities in the ex-Soviet state of mistreating detainees.
---------
OUT NOTE: reports from the ground say that today, April 16, no one was released from the police custody.

* * *

LEADER OF MOLDOVA'S 'TWITTER REVOLUTION' IN HIDING
Telegraph (UK)
April 16, 2009

A woman who helped organise the protests that rocked Moldova last week has gone into hiding after the "Twitter revolution" forced a recount of the general election.

Natalia Morar, 25, was behind a flash mob that ended with 20,000 people storming the parliament building in the country's captial Chisinau.

She now fears she will be arrested for her role in the unrest, which left parliament buildings damaged.

Miss Morar, told the Guardian she had not slept for two nights and was moving from one apartment to the next in an attempt to outwit the authorities.

Reports said police had ordered she be placed under house arrest.

"They have staked out my house and my mother's," she told the paper, speaking from a secret location.

"They entered my apartment without a search warrant. If they find me they will arrest me – and what happens then, no one knows. I haven't spoken on the phone or gone online for two days for fear of being traced."

The protests began after a conversation between Morar and six friends in a cafe in Chisinau on April 6.

"We discussed what we should do about the previous day's parliamentary elections, which we were sure had been rigged," she said.

The elections brought a larger-than-expected victory for the incumbent Communist party.

"We decided to organise a flash mob for the same day using Twitter, as well as networking sites and SMS."

With no recent history of mass protests in Moldova, "we expected at the most a couple of hundred friends, friends of friends, and colleagues", she said.

"When we went to the square, there were 20,000 people waiting there. It was unbelievable."

On Tuesday, the demonstrations continued into peacefully. But later that day protesters stormed the parliament building and the presidential palace opposite. Fire broke out in one wing of the parliament, and the young protesters damaged computers and office furniture.

"Not only did we underestimate the power of Twitter and the internet, we also underestimated the explosive anger among young people at the government's policies and electoral fraud," she said.

Miss Morar, who is banned from Russia for opposing the Kremlin, believes Moldova's powerful neighbour was involved in the vendetta against her: "It was when Russia expressed strong support for Moldova's position on the elections, and condemned the protests, that they started targeting us."

The results of the recount will be announced on Friday.

* * *

TWO MOLDOVAN SUSPECTS OF ORGANIZING CHISINAU RIOTS EXTRADITED FROM UKRAINE
Kyiv Post (Ukraine)
April 16, 2009

Moldovan citizens Gabriel Stati and Auren Marinescu suspected of funding the Chisinau riots have been extradited from Ukraine, Ukrainian Deputy Prosecutor General Oleksandr Shynalsky told Interfax-Ukraine.

"They are already in Moldova," he said.

Stati and Marinescu were seized in Odesa on April 9. Moldovan police wanted them "for actions aimed to seize power in violation of the Moldovan constitution". The riots in Chisinau occurred on April 6-7.

* * *


MOLDOVAN CAPITAL’S MAYOR SPEAKS AGAINST COMMUNISM
By ELLEN BARRY, New York Times (USA)
April 13, 2009

The 30-year-old mayor of Chisinau, Dorin Chirtoaca, told a crowd of around 3,000 in the city’s central square on Sunday that Moldova’s youth had rejected Communism because they “understand that their future has been stolen.”

Last week, after anti-Communist rallies culminated in a violent raid of government buildings in Moldova, authorities arrested hundreds of participants and cracked down on high school and college classrooms across the country. Those who gathered on Sunday were mostly in their 40s and 50s, many carrying candles from morning church services.

During last week’s demonstrations, “the young people threw out portraits of Voronin and Lenin and others because they have come to hate them,” Mr. Chirtoaca said to shouts of applause, referring to Moldova’s 67-year-old Soviet-educated president, Vladimir Voronin. “They understand that their future has been stolen. They understand that their votes in the parliamentary elections were stolen. Regimes that use terror end badly.”

Mr. Chirtoaca, elected two years ago on an anti-Communist platform, called for a moment of silence in memory of Valeriu Boboc, 23, who died Wednesday after participating in demonstrations on Tuesday. His parents have said that his death was caused by a beating at the hands of the police.

Moldova’s Interior Ministry released a statement on Sunday saying an autopsy showed that Mr. Boboc had a broken rib, but that his death had not been caused by the injury. “Doctors think that the young man was poisoned by unknown substances,” the statement said, according to Interfax. “Prosecutors are ready for an international probe in order to exclude other interpretations of this fact.”

Meanwhile, Moldova’s Constitutional Court on Sunday authorized a recount of the results from the April 5 parliamentary elections, as well as a verification of voter lists, allotting nine days for its completion. Preliminary results released April 5 showed Communists getting about 50 percent of the vote, which would give them enough leverage to select the next president unilaterally — a bitter disappointment to young people eager to shake off Communist rule. The results set off large anti-Communist protests last Monday and Tuesday.

The crowd that gathered on Sunday was striking for its absence of students, who have been severely sanctioned for participating in the actions last week. Aurelia Pospai, 62, a university instructor, said the state Ministry of Education on Wednesday ordered faculty members to sign a document promising to prevent their students from participating in rallies. She said she hoped to send a message that the protest movement was not confined to the young.

“Since 1984, we were fighting against Communism,” she said. “And now we have fallen back into it with this regime. We want them out even more than the young people do.”

* * *

MOLDOVAN GENERATION GAP STOKES POLITICAL FEUDS
By MANSUR MIROVALEV, AP (USA)
April 12, 2009

With one-quarter of the population working abroad to eke out a living, impoverished Moldova has become a country of the young and the very old.

It's a generation gap that has split the country politically — and violently.

The elderly, who look to Moscow for leadership and are nostalgic for the Soviet past, recently voted to return Communists to power. The young, rallied by text messages and Twitter and eager to join Europe, seized and trashed parliament and the country's presidential offices in response.

The unrest continued Sunday, as 3,000 anti-government protesters gathered in downtown Chisinau to call for the government to resign.

Some Moldovans say the absence of working-age adults, less embittered than the old and more practical than the young, is to blame for turning the parliamentary contest into a clash of generations.

Ion Covali, a 61-year-old retired trucker, voted for the victorious Communists because he believes capitalism has only brought his once-proud country poverty and humiliation — a point driven home by the world economic crisis.

"We used to be a magnet, everyone in the Soviet Union envied us," Covali said, as wrinkles on his face smoothed into a frail smile. "But now we live in a dump."

Covali's grandson, 19-year-old Ion Covali, was among thousands of youths who took to the streets after the April 5 vote. Demonstrators alleged widespread voting fraud and called for new elections.

For the younger Ion, who didn't bother to vote, the protests were exhilarating. "Everything was so unexpected," the university student said. "And everyone was high on this sudden freedom."

Nina Bondarenko, a 60-year old schoolteacher, said Moldova's elderly — who built their lives during the Soviet era — still cling to the myths of Communism. "Soviet children were drilled into believing white was black and vise versa, and they have become ... today's pensioners," she said.

The younger generation, she said, are free to think for themselves. But the country's youth have grown up without parental supervision, leaving them feeling both bold and abandoned, Bondarenko said.

"The schools are filled with children whose parents are abroad, and many children protest it any way they can," she said.

Wednesday's protests, among the largest Moldova has seen since March 2002, ended with 193 people arrested and almost 100 injured.

Sergei Roscovanu, a taxi driver who recently returned from working in Ireland, is neither a student nor a pensioner. The 25-year-old said he didn't know whether to blame the protesters or the Communists for the unrest.

He is certain of one thing: Moldovan society has suffered because so many live abroad. "We have been bled dry by the exodus," said Roscovanu.

The 1991 Soviet collapse transformed Moldova into one of the poorest countries in Europe. Up to a fourth of the population of 4 million work in the European Union or Russia and their remittances amounted to almost 40 per cent of Moldova's GDP, according to the World Bank.

"There is a growing conflict between grandparents and grandchildren," said Anatoly Petrenko of the opposition group European Action.

The elections left the Communists with 60 out of 101 seats in parliament, one short of being able to name a replacement for President Vladimir Voronin, who in 2001 became Europe's first democratically elected communist head of state.

On Friday Voronin, who is stepping down after two terms, ordered a re-count of votes calling for a resolution of Moldova's "political dead-end."

While older Moldovans tend to regard Russia as their country's chief ally, many youth look west to Europe and neighboring Romania, which shares close linguistic, ethnic and historical ties with Moldova. Many protesters called for unification with Romania, a member of the European Union and NATO.

Voronin, meanwhile, has accused Romanian authorities of supporting the violent protests and of helping the opposition organize the revolt.

Older Moldovans like to reminisce about the days when Moldova was a jewel in the crown of the Soviet Union. The tiny republic had thriving agriculture, and Covali recalls driving trucks loaded with Moldovan fruit, vine and cigarettes to central Russia and Siberia.

After the 1991 Soviet collapse, the world turned upside down for the pensioner's generation. Sitting at an oak dinner table at his crammed apartment in the capital, Chisinau, Covali pointed at the pictures of his two sons, Corneliu and Marius, who work at a fish cannery in Portugal to support their families.

Now the world's economic downturn, he said, threatens even this tenuous economic lifeline.

"I voted for Communists because they promise stability amid this capitalist crisis," Covali said. "They are far from perfect, but they are better than these opposition crybabies that squabble between themselves instead of serving the people."

Young Moldovans, meanwhile, live in a world of electronic gadgets and computers, swiftly changing fashion trends and multicultural influences.

Many have traveled or worked abroad and resent that their impoverished country is ruled by the aged elite that seeks closer ties with Russia and still calls itself Communist.

Communism is unfashionable among youth here. "It's just a brand for the old people," sneered Roman Lobov, a 22-year old university student with closely cropped hair.

If anything, the recent protests may have aggravated Moldova's yawning generation gap.

"The revolt only boosted communists' ratings," said Svetlana, a middle-aged saleswoman at a bookstore in central Chisinau, who refused to provide her last name, saying she fears pressure from nationalists.

"Many of my friends were indifferent to voting, but after what happened they said they will vote for Voronin," she said.

Of course, not all of the young supported the protests. Neither do all elderly Moldovans back the Communists.

But prospects for a reconciliation of Moldova's divided generations appear slim in the short run, said young Ion Covali, wearing a black coat and white-blue jeans.

He was standing outside a movie theater with a marquee advertising both Hollywood and Russian blockbusters, another symptom of his country's split between East and West.

"We need changes so much," he said, "but sometimes I think they will come only after the older generation is gone."

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Useful Background


Posters exhorting citizens to vote - "Your vote counts!", Chisinau, April 12

There is an interesting interview with Dmitri Furman in the Nov-Dec 2008 New Left Review, in which Furman analyzes the "Imitation Democracies" in the post-Soviet world. Ideally this analysis would be read in conjunction with some reading about Virtual Politics, which covers the process part of the equation, but a few portions of Furman's article stood out as relevant to a full understanding of what's been happening in Chisinau lately.

Furman, in his initial taxonomy of post-Soviet states, avers that Moldova is in good company:
A purely regional subdivision does not, in my view, bring out any especially significant post-Soviet characteristics. It would be better instead to class these states according to their type of political development, which produces the following three groupings. First, countries in which power has several times been transferred to the opposition through elections, and which we can consider as being squarely on the path of democratic development. These are: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, to which we might add Moldova—though this is a more complicated case, developing in its own distinctive fashion.

Second, countries in which power has never been transferred to the opposition, or indeed to anyone not nominated by the authorities themselves. There are four of these: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, ruled today by Nursultan Nazarbaev and Islam Karimov, both former First Secretaries of the cp Central Committee of their respective republics; Turkmenistan, ruled by Saparmurat Niyazov, also a member of the Soviet nomenklatura, until his death in 2006, when the presidency was handed to one of his comrades-in-arms; and Russia, where power has twice been transferred—but to men designated by their predecessors. These are what I have termed ‘imitation democracies’, characterized by a huge disparity between formal constitutional principles and the reality of authoritarian rule.

Thirdly, in between these two paths of development—democratic and authoritarian—lies a large group of countries which have, as it were, switched between the two. There are seven of these: Ukraine, Belarus, the three Transcaucasian countries—Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan—and in Central Asia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. They have followed highly varied trajectories.
Furman also describes the trajectory of "imitation democracies," in a passage which suggests that those Moldovans who are fighting right now to keep their country from becoming one are doing the right thing:
Where does this all lead? In the end, to crisis and collapse. Increased control over society means the atrophy of ‘feedback mechanisms’. Once elections become pure fiction and the media are on a tight leash, the authorities lose all sense of what is happening in the country. The strengthening of control leads, ‘dialectically’, to a loss of control. The quality of the elite deteriorates, due to systematic promotion of the weakest and most servile. Corruption reaches monstrous proportions. Legitimacy disappears, since there is no alternative ideology and democracy itself becomes an increasingly transparent fiction. Moreover, as societies develop, the psychological bases for imitation democracy are eroded. What had seemed incredible freedom in 1991—for example, the ability to travel overseas—has now become the norm, and it becomes more and more difficult for new generations to be satisfied with imitation democracy.
And Furman then describes why Moldova stands out as somewhat unique in his categorization - sort of like the Baltics, but not really:

Moldova’s trajectory has been highly distinctive. It is the only post-Soviet country where the reaction to the anti-Communist revolution of 1989–91 brought the Communists back to power; not Communists ‘repainted’ as democrats—those are in power everywhere—but real ones. At the same time, it is closer to stable democracy than all the other post-Soviet countries except the Baltic states and Ukraine. How did this happen? Moldovan society is deeply divided over the question of national self-identification: who are the Moldovans—Romanians or a separate people? What is today called Moldova was formerly part of a princedom vassal to the Ottoman empire, torn from the rest of the historical Moldovan principality as a result of the Russo-Turkish War of 1806–12; thereafter, as Bessarabia, it formed part of the Russian empire, and its predominantly peasant population developed very differently from that on the other side of the frontier.

At the end of the 1980s, movements emerged advocating ‘reunification’ with Romania, and in the following years, the matter of national identity became the organizing question of Moldovan political life. The resultant divisions prevented the Moldovan elite from consolidating around the president, as elites elsewhere did, in order to prevent the Communists from coming to power. The ‘alternativeless’ regime in Russia, for example, was founded on the principle of excluding the Communists—with full support from the West, which backed Yeltsin’s coup of 1993 and the very dishonest elections of 1996. But the Moldovan example indicates that the Communists were capable of accepting the democratic ‘rules of the game’—and shows that a democratic victory for the Communists is not necessarily a catastrophe for democracy. There was also a strong subjective factor at play in Moldova, in the person of the level-headed Communist leader Vladimir Voronin.


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Moldova and Information Wars

An interesting translation from today's JRL:

Nezavisimaya Gazeta
April 15, 2009
Editorial: "Campaigns and Wars: A Thing or Two About Information Policy"

Right now it's too soon to judge how much events in Moldova might exacerbate the information conflict between Russia and the West. There are substantial grounds for thinking there won't be any exacerbation. First, the attack upon and fire set at the parliament building is an obvious delict that does not offer a multitude of interpretations; second, both sides know full well that Voronin is not a pro-Russian figure; and finally, third, the prospect of Moldova joining Romania with the inevitable secession of the Dniester region is hardly inspiring to any sane person.

It would seem that in war as in war all means are good and you can quibble over anything. In fact, spontaneity and omnivory are signs more characteristic of a propaganda campaign, a more obviously local and short-term phenomenon.

That's not how it is in areal information war. Dilettantes sometimes think that its goal is to convince the opponent. However, that is the second goal both in time and importance; in fact, the top goal of an information war is to convince your own side. And only afterward to present this indestructible ideological unity to your opponent as an irrefutable argument in your debate.

The two phenomena we're talking about are utterly unalike in their very organization. A propaganda campaign is carried out by a limited circle of professionals and aimed outward from the beginning. There is no 'our side' here by definition. If you're convinced of what you're doing, fine; if you're not but you look convincing, that's not bad either. War is a deeply structured affair. Here each side has its headquarters and command points, a decent-sized army of mercenaries, abroad array of transmission belts to bring orders to subordinates and dependents. But the main thing is this: in no 'hot' war have so many volunteers participated as are now battling on the information fronts. Formally, these are the millions of participants in forums and blogs, but in essence it is everyone who has ever gotten into a conversation about the theme under discussion rather than about sports or the weather.

If we understand the goal of an information war as changing our opponent's mind, then it is hard to understand who is supposed to debate whom and in what language. Debates go on between countries, too, of course, but all these are faint streams on the backdrop of runaway domestic tsunamis going to and fro.

The information noise of politicians, the media, debating political experts, public figures, writers, artists, and even high school and university students is what creates the specific principles in accordance with which reality is understood and demonstrated. It is from this stock that the soft power of the state is extracted -- as an element of competitive advantage. Which ceases to be competitive if it is subordinated to the goals and means of the information war.

In very recent history we can distinguish three information wars between the West and Russia: the second Chechen war, the events surrounding the orange revolution, and 8 August 2008 in South Ossetia. All the rest -- Yukos, Litvinenko, and so forth -- are examples of classic propaganda campaigns.

It is wrong to think that there is one big war and the above mentioned are merely episodes in it. There is no total permanent war. Most of the time over the course of the last two decades, a pluralism of opinions in both camps has predominated over their uniformity, which is characteristic for war.

But what is most interesting is that all three instances developed according to completely analogous scenarios. A visible unity of the 'developed world' was achieved with respect to the subject of disagreement, and it was presented to Russia without visible effect, inasmuch as Russia had the opposite consensus. As we know, a whale and an elephant cannot fight each other. Due to a total mismatch of discourse.

Moreover, those who brought Russia human, material, and moral losses -- the Chechen fighters, the oranges, or Saakashvili -- subsequently made the West blush many times for the fact that it had ever supported them.

Could it be time to stop consolidating public opinion against one another? That is, might it be time for the elephant and whale to stop their attempts to butt heads?

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A Map With a Story to Tell

I know this isn't particularly substantive, but please bear with me. Perhaps the coolest thing I was able to bring back from my most recent trip to Chisinau was the map taxi drivers - at least Russophone taxi drivers - use to get around the city. I've seen it used before, and the cabbie I ended up buying it from told me there was a place where I could buy a copy, but since I was leaving the next day I prevailed on him to sell me his.

The map with one fell swoop eliminates all of my questions about why some cabbies in Chisinau still use Soviet-era street names. The reason, quite apparent if you look at the full-size images of the pages below (here and here), is that the map itself is replete with Soviet-era names. In all (I've reproduced below only the title page and the page showing downtown), it's a riot of names of offices and restaurants in two languages and two alphabets - exactly the sort of thing that makes Moldova such a fascinating place to visit when you have somewhere else to go home to, but can make it a challenging place to live when you don't.


IMG_1381, originally uploaded by lyndonk2.




IMG_1380, originally uploaded by lyndonk2.

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What's in a Name?


Old Orhei Monastery, July 31, 2005


Many were eager to dub last week's protests in Moldova the "Twitter Revolution." Leaving aside for a moment the fact that it's probably improper to strain to find in provocateur-instigated mob violence parallels to the color revolutions of a few years ago, if one seeks a name for the events in Chisinau, there would seem to be better monikers at hand.

Last week I noted a couple of the ones making the rounds - "#pman Revolution" and "Orphans' Revolution," a coinage which got another mention in this interesting post by a foreigner living in Moldova - and mentioned that I regard the tag I've been using to aggregate posts on the situation in Moldova, "Grape Revolution," as tongue-in-cheek and probably not the best name of the ones out there.

From the outset, the peaceful protesters on April 6th wanted to have a Candle Revolution - burning candles to mourn what they saw as the death of Moldovan democracy. At the demonstration on Sunday the 12th, I saw several people at the back of the crowd trying to keep the meme alive by lighting votive candles in plastic cups on the sidewalk. It didn't look like they were having much success. Gusts of wind kept blowing out the candles and tipping over the cups.

A couple of the other appellations which have been circulating in the Russian-language coverage of events in Moldova are somewhat indicative of Russians' tendency to look down their noses at Moldovans.

The first of these is the moniker "Mamaliga Revolution," after Moldova's polenta-like national dish. The Transdniestrian propagandists at LivePMR wasted no time in rolling out a post under this name. An item on Moldovanova earlier this year had this meditation on the idea of a Mamaliga Revolution:
Mamaliga, as we know, is tasty and pleasant while it's hot. When it gets cold people usually feed it to their dogs.
Calling the violence of last week a "Mamaliga Revolution" doesn't quite work, however, if one believes the riots were truly spontaneous - you see, one of the fundamental bits of conventional wisdom tossed around by those who hew to the view that the Moldovan people are politically passive is that "mamaliga doesn't explode" ("мамалыга не взрывается").

Another sobriquet that's been making the rounds in Russian mainstream media as well as online is "Tile Revolution" ("кафельная революция"), a reference to Russians' apparent belief that, since many of the Moldovans in Russia do construction work (and are regarded in the ethnic hierarchy of post-Soviet migrant workers as semi-skilled enough to be given the painting and tile-laying parts of the jobs), that must be what all of them do.

I first heard about this one from an ethnic Russian who lives in Chisinau. He was dismissive of the term, saying of his co-ethnics in Russia, "they'll say anything to put someone else down." A quick Yandex search shows that "Tile Revolution" - an appropriately derisive way to refer to Moldovans, and uppity Moldovans especially, at least from Moscow's point of view - seems to have received an official imprimatur, having appeared in the headline of this story on state-run news program Vesti. Komsomol'skaia Pravda also dropped this phrase in a somewhat interesting, if biased, roundup of Russophone blogs from Moldova, which is, however, missing links to the blogs in question.

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The Coming Storm?


Woman selling daffodils on the local equivalent of Palm Sunday,
April 12, about a block away from the opposition's peaceful protest.


The dire financial situation into which Moldova appears to be headed is an important part of the background to last week's events. It may explain why Moldova's Western partners initially appeared willing to take a hands-off posture and let Voronin make his own way out of last week's political crisis if he could - in these tough times, even the US is less disposed to get involved, and perhaps everyone would prefer to deal with a known quantity than with a fractious opposition.

The article below describes just how unfortunate the coincidence of political and financial crises could be for Moldova, although the last line sort of buries what could turn out to be the lede:
Moldova burdened with $1bn budget shortfall (Financial Times)
By Thomas Escritt in Chisinau

Published: April 15 2009 01:33 | Last updated: April 15 2009 01:33

Moldova could face a severe financial crisis later this year, if it fails to cover a $1bn budget shortfall, creating the prospect of unpaid salaries and heightening the political tensions in the country following contested election results 10 days ago.

The country, already Europe’s poorest, with a gross domestic product per capita of just $1,800, is dependent on some $2bn a year in remittances from residents abroad, which amount to a third of the country’s GDP.

Bleak conditions in Romania, Russia, Ukraine and southern Europe, where most of the Moldovan diaspora is to be found, mean remittances fell 28 per cent year on year in January.

Three quarters of Moldova’s tax revenues come from import-related indirect taxes, including value added tax, and imports have fallen 50 per cent year on year as Moldovans feel the pinch. Government revenues would fall to $2bn on current trends, leaving Moldova dependent on external financing.


“You have small, shallow domestic securities markets ... so to finance the deficit you only have external financing or you have to revise the budget,” said Johan Mathisen, the International Monetary Fund’s representative in the country.

A transition country with a low credit rating, Moldova has very limited access to commercial credit markets abroad, while there is no government in place to revise a $3bn budget drawn up before the impact on the crisis became clear.

An IMF delegation is due to arrive in the capital Chisinau next week to begin talks over the shape of a support package to replace a long-running agreement signed in 1995.

But Moldova has nobody to negotiate a deal. The results of elections 10 days ago, in which the ruling Communist party won 49 per cent of the vote, are contested by opposition parties who say the Communist victory was bought fraudulently. With the political process bogged down in recounts and ballot checks, it could be autumn before a new government is formed.

But with the political process at a stalemate that may drag on into the autumn following contested elections 10 days ago, there is no government to trim government spending or negotiate the terms of an international support deal.

Moldova’s economy has performed strongly under eight years of Communist stewardship, doubling in size to $6bn last year from $3bn in 2005, with public debt at only 18 per cent of GDP. But salaries are still low, with a policeman earning just $120 a month. And with the atmosphere already tense following the elections and the violence that followed them, a caretaker government could be forced to turn elsewhere for help.

Privately, western officials in the capital Chisinau suggest Russia may be waiting in the wings to offer financial support.

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Propaganda

When I boarded the Air Moldova turboprop in Vienna for my connecting flight to Chisinau last Friday (talk about a small world - seven people on the plane, I knew one of them and he knew two of the others), the reading material available for passengers left no doubt as to how the Moldovan government was spinning the events of April 7.

Below are the two pages of coverage from state-run Moldova Suverana (a newspaper we had occasion to discuss last summer when it ran a hatchet-job piece on American NGOs in Moldova) - the paper had only four pages in total and the other two were business announcements, classifieds, etc. The front-page headline is "The Opposition's Latest Vandalism Will Cost Us 300 Mln Lei," and the stories along the right-hand side discuss Voronin's conversations with the Presidents of Russia and Lithuania and the Russian Duma's support for the Moldovan authorities.

MS's second page of coverage highlights, among other things, photos of opposition leaders Chirtoaca and Filat supposedly organizing the riots and - rather unbelievably - photos of destruction in Chisinau in 1941 when it was retaken by Romanian forces, inviting readers to draw a comparison between the devastation wreaked by a fascist army and the riots in downtown Chisinau on April 7th.

Further down and continuing below the cut is coverage from Vremea, a Russian-language newspaper which doesn't seem to have a functioning website at the moment (the URL on the front page leads to a blank page). The bulk of the paper is devoted to what it calls a "Chronicle of a Failed Putsch."


IMG_1371, originally uploaded by lyndonk2.




IMG_1372, originally uploaded by lyndonk2.




IMG_1373, originally uploaded by lyndonk2.


IMG_1374, originally uploaded by lyndonk2.



IMG_1375, originally uploaded by lyndonk2.



IMG_1376, originally uploaded by lyndonk2.



IMG_1378, originally uploaded by lyndonk2.



IMG_1379, originally uploaded by lyndonk2.

The last page, of course, is not about Moldova, but its slams on Georgian and Ukrainian leaders assist one in pinpointing the paper's editorial stance.

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Fact-checking


Soviet-era sign warning of high voltage, the literal translation of
which is "
Under Pressure / Danger to Life." Chisinau, April 13.

Since I got back from Chisinau, I've tried to catch up on all of the online and other coverage of events there which I missed while running around the city. As it turns out, some of the stories which have appeared contain substantial errors of fact or interpretation. Below are two such articles.

First is an article in OpenDemocracy, the headline of which informs readers that it's "Time to Take Sides" in Moldova, an exhortation which should give one pause immediately. Sure enough, the article contains at least one profound factual error:
...Moldova's long-serving leader has survived the challenges faced by his post-cold-war counterparts in east-central Europe in the early 1990s to be repeatedly re-elected in essentially non-contested elections and become the incarnation of the status quo. The official results of the 5 April election continued the pattern...
Voronin was not "repeatedly re-elected" (actually, the way the system works, his post is selected by the Parliament, but I guess one shouldn't be too literal): he was elected once in 2001, in contested elections regarded as free and fair, and he was re-elected once in 2005, in elections which were also a legitimate victory. The problem is not that there has been some sort of "pattern"; quite the opposite. The problem is that the pattern of Moldovan democracy - multiple peaceful transfers of power via the ballot box, a record of which no other CIS country can boast - has been dealt a serious blow.

Perhaps it would be better if journalists and commentators simply referred to Voronin's party as the PCRM. It might allow people who still go all wild-eyed at any mention of the C-word to develop a reasonable opinion about the Moldovan political scene. In its actual policies and attitudes, the PCRM has been about as Communist as Putin's United Russia.

Next up is a piece by the Guardian's Jonathan Steele, which essentially makes the very reasonable point that, were Moldova better off economically, people likely wouldn't have taken to the streets to protest what Steele seems to regard as minor irregularities in the voting.
Opposition parties deplore last week's violence - they claim it was started by pro-communist provocateurs. But why would the government, having just won elections, want to stoke unrest?
There is one obvious answer to this question: the level of violence involved in the protests allows the PCRM to discredit the Moldovan opposition in the eyes of Moldovan voters, and therefore secures the PCRM's position as the unchallenged master of the political scene. Given the level of accusations leveled at the Communist leadership involving personal enrichment (accusations not dispelled by the awarding of the roughly $27 million contract to repair the destroyed government buildings to Glorinal, a construction company owned by the President's son, Oleg Voronin), and the attendant diminished sense of legitimacy surrounding the PCRM's rule, it is clear that the ruling party may have some reason to fear ending up in the minority.

Moreover, the violence in Chisinau could have been orchestrated to allow the PCRM to assume a tighter grip on power in anticipation of the global economic crisis arriving in Moldova in full force, which many observers expect to happen in coming months. I mention these possible rationales merely to show that one should not incredulously ask, "Why would the government...want to stoke unrest?" In any event, perhaps I was talking to the wrong people, but no one I spoke with in Chisinau over the weekend believed the violence of April 7th took place without some government role.
It is true that [the government] reacted to last week's violence with heavy-handedness, arresting around 200 people, beating some in prison and police stations, and not releasing adequate information on who was still held and where. Foreign journalists have been blocked at the borders and access to several opposition websites as well as Facebook and Twitter has been barred, so as to obstruct protesters from mobilising.

But these abuses do not warrant calls for the government to resign, nor for the EU to back demands for a re-run of the elections. They look like sour grapes since there is no evidence of fraud large enough to have awarded the wrong party victory.
Steele filed this piece before news of a second death associated with the protests came out (both deaths reported so far were allegedly the result of police brutality), but he seems to have underestimated the degree to which the opposition would be successful in playing the human rights card and getting European attention. Interestingly, the West wasn't really sitting up and taking notice when the opposition's grievances were related to the electoral process; but the new grievances resulting from the apparent brutality of the government's response may be enough to get some attention.

More importantly, the observation in the last sentence quoted above suggests a lack of understanding of the Moldovan political process. In order to elect the President, 61 votes in Parliament are required. The results initially released, in which the vote for the PCRM on a percentage basis exceeded both exit-polls and earlier surveys by 5-15%, provided exactly 61 mandates (the results were later revised downward by about 0.5% to provide the PCRM with 60 mandates). Thus it becomes a question of what sort of fraud is "large enough" to create a scandal. If the fraud prevented the PCRM from having to reach a compromise with roughly five opposition deputies, it quite possibly could have changed the outcome of the Presidential selection process. After all, at certain borderline levels, fraud need only be minuscule in order to tip the balance.

I normally wouldn't waste time on errors which might not be errors at all - some of my nitpicks of Steele's piece could be just misinterpretations or a choice of emphasis - but it's important to know the details in a situation like this before deciding how one feels about how one would like things to turn out.

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Wednesday, April 15, 2009

There and back

Chisinau, evening of April 13

Last Thursday night, facing a four-day weekend in London alone (my family's in the States for a couple of weeks), I decided to make the most of my free time and travel to Chisinau. I stayed until yesterday afternoon and had the chance to meet with a bunch of friends as well as several members of the local expert community, not to mention all of the quotable taxi drivers I spoke with. I was so busy that the only thing I failed to do which had been a part of my expectations for the trip was write a running account of my time there online. To be honest, though, I thought it was more important to be out talking to people than hunched over my laptop somewhere.

Although I missed the real action (which, since it now appears to have resulted in the loss of at least two lives, should perhaps not be trivialized), I felt like I was there for the second-most-important thing: the days during which Moldovans - opposition voters and PCRM voters; educated and otherwise; Russophone, Romania-oriented and otherwise - were doing their best to make sense of what had happened.

I heard a lot of different versions of the events of last Tuesday, none of which was entirely satisfying, and accumulated about 30 pages of notes which I'm now attempting to filter (for rumors, with which the city was rife) and distill into something that might help outsiders make sense of the situation there. Hopefully I'll be able to post that tomorrow.

Until then, here is a digest of the day's news from Chisinau as circulated in an email by one of my friends who lives there (the only thing I would add to the list is that today President Voronin has announced an amnesty for those individuals arrested in the protests who are not "recidivists." It's not clear whether the police have actually started to release people, but this statement is clearly directed against the opposition's well-advised attempt to take their grievances from the realm of election fraud into the realm of human rights abuses - an escalation of grievances which was of course made possible by the government's poor handling of the instability which followed the elections):

  • The Court of Appeal has denied access to voters’ lists for the three Opposition parties, after CEC allowed access to the lists earlier this week;
  • Council of Europe Secretary General Terry Davis issued a press statement concerning the situation in Moldova. Davis expressed his grave concern regarding “alleged breaches of human rights with alleged detention of large numbers of people, including children, and restrictions on the freedom of media”. CoE will send an envoy to investigate the situation in Moldova;
  • After Romanian President Basescu addressed the Romanian Parliament yesterday and announced his request to the Government of Romania to facilitate the granting of Romanian citizenship to Moldovans, the Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Legal Affairs stated that Moldova might have to abolish the law on double citizenship in order to protect its sovereignty;
  • OSCE representative for Freedom of the Media called on Moldovan authorities to allow unimpeded access to international journalists to report from Moldova. OSCE pointed out that the Government’s actions vis-à-vis foreign media is in violation with OSCE principles concerning media freedom;
  • Czech PM Mirek Topolanek, whose country holds the EU Presidency, will visit Moldova on April 22 to learn more about the situation in the country in the aftermath of April 5 elections;
  • Vote recounting is progressing without any incidents, according to the Central Electoral Commission. The Opposition refused to participate in the recount of votes stating that the ruling Communist Party is trying to shift the problem from “how many voted to who voted”. The Opposition stated that thousands of deceased people were on the lists and voted on election day;
  • Today the three Opposition parties – Liberals, Liberal-Democrats and Our Moldova Alliance – presented some of the preliminary findings of their electoral fraud investigations. The findings reveal substantial violations, including mass multiple voting, forged signatures, voting with multiple documents and voting without documents. In Cahul, a city in southern Moldova, 2036 frauds were revealed, which represents 10.6% of the city’s electorate;
  • The leader of the breakaway region of Transnistria has ruled out any possible negotiations with the current Chisinau administration. Smirnov pointed out that the entire international community saw the real face of the current regime in Moldova;
  • Gabriel Stati, a prominent Moldovan businessman arrested in Ukraine in the aftermath of April 7 protests, will be extradited to Moldova according to the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office. Stati is accused of financing a coup d’etat and was arrested in Odessa, Ukraine on April 9. He is facing up to 25 years in jail.

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Thursday, April 09, 2009

Vindictive Voronin


Unimedia, citing ProTV (story here in Romanian), reports that the government has assessed the damage from the destruction and looting of the Parliament and Presidential Palace at 300 million lei, or roughly 27.2 million US dollars at today's rate.

Voronin has apparently stated (Unimedia cites ProTV, which itself cites official news agency Moldpres for this, but I couldn't find anything on Moldpres's admittedly not very reliably updated website) that repairs to the damaged buildings will be repaired using state funds which had previously been designated for the institutions of higher education at which [some of] the protesters are students.

If this is true, it is difficult to imagine a more petty and irresponsible answer by the head of state to this week's protests. Not only this statement provocative in the immediate term, it would also, if implemented, contribute to one of the major causes of frustration among the youth - an educational system rendered dysfunctional by corruption, which is driven at least in part by a dearth of funding.

The attitude displayed here by Voronin - again, if the story is true, although even if it's someone's provocation the fact that it's so plausible speaks volumes about Voronin's customary demeanor toward the people he governs - goes a long way toward explaining the level of frustration among young people in Chisinau.

Apparently more protests are being planned for tomorrow, and- coincidentally? - the country's main electricity provider is planning blackouts in a number of regions for "repair works."

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All Twittered Out?



It looks like the Twitter phase of what many (especially social media evangelists) are calling the "Twitter Revolution" has passed. According to Nicu Popescu:
Twitter is no longer useful. It has become a victim of its own popularity. If during the first day Twitter had live news from the main square, today Twitter has become a collection of spam. New messages appear every half-second, and the avalanche of information and messages buries any useful information.
Unimedia had the following update this morning (and more interesting updates since - check them out here):
(UPDATE 10:16, April 9, local time) Central Ellection Comittee has allowed the opposition parties to verify the voters lists. The opposition has 4 days starting today, Thursday.
While I'm no expert on the conduct of color revolutions, it would seem that this keeps the election results "in play," i.e. they remain something that can be credibly contested, over the weekend, which is perhaps a good thing for those among opposition parties and protesters who have the stomach for spending more time in the streets voicing their legitimate grievances. On the other hand, it may not be a good thing for the many Moldovans who would rather see a calm resolution to this crisis - preferring "stability," democracy be damned - since the opposition has not shown an ability to resist official provocations and conduct sustained, peaceful protests of the kind that achieved success in Ukraine.

During the next few days, I'd imagine both the authorities and the opposition will be jockeying for position, and the more cynical individuals involved (which some accounts suggest is a category that includes much of the opposition) may see if there are side bargains they can strike with the Communists, since it seems the latter now have the upper hand.

Meanwhile, Unimedia reports that Gabriel Stati, one of the businessmen accused of financing the protests has reportedly been arrested in Odessa, lending credence to Voronin's claims that the backers of the "revolution" have fled the country, so perhaps the behind-the-scenes score-settling among the elites is underway.

Unimedia's Romanian-language page is slightly more current than the English version and reports on two disturbing developments today - students who were involved in the protests being hauled out of their classes and driven away in BMWs and several Romanian reporters getting deported (RIA Novosti is also covering the latter story, no doubt Russia's image-makers love it when the former republics show themselves to be chips off the old block and help overshadow Russia's own bad acts).

Worth reading around the net - another roundup post of blog coverage by Veronica at Global Voices; a brief post by Moldovarious, which also has two sets of photos; and Komsomolskaia Pravda's coverage (in Russian, headlined "Uprising in Chisinau Organized by the Children of Migrant Workers") - don't miss their photo of Natalia Morari at the protests wearing an "I [heart] Barack Obama" t-shirt (amazing, assuming it's not photoshopped, and I have no reason to believe it is except that it plays so well into the hands of those who like to see any protest or political opposition in a post-Soviet country as an American plot). Hey, I love BHO too, but - even granting that the protest Morari's group co-organized was peaceful and probably well-intentioned - it doesn't look like the folks who looted buildings in downtown Chisinau were really after "change we can believe in."

I leave you with a story (apparently intended to be a straight-news item, although it reads a bit like an opinion piece) from today's Moscow Times, which has an interesting take on the situation in Moldova.
Moldova Underscores Failed Russian Policy
09 April 2009
By Nabi Abdullaev / The Moscow Times

Anti-government protests in Moldova this week unfolded in a similar manner to Western-backed uprisings that toppled governments in Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan and Serbia in recent years.

But what should worry the Kremlin is not the threat of a similar uprising at home but the fact that both Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin and the opposition groups turned to the West instead of Russia to mediate the conflict, analysts said Wednesday.

Because of the shortsightedness of Russian diplomacy and its failure to project its own "soft" power, the Kremlin faces the possibility of being sidelined once again in a former Soviet state that it considers to be within its realm of influence.


"The policy mistakes are clear and were much discussed after the Orange Revolution in Ukraine," said Nikolai Petrov, a political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, referring to the weeks of street protests in what was once Russia's strongest post-Soviet ally. The 2004 protests resulted in pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko winning the presidency over the Moscow-backed candidate.

Despite the Kremlin's awareness of its mistakes, it has failed to become a big, benevolent partner to West-leaning former Soviet states since then, resorting instead to energy blackmail and military threats, like with Georgia, Petrov said. This has fueled anti-Russian sentiment among the opposition in those countries, he said.

Moldovan opposition groups took to the streets to demand a vote recount after the Voronin-led Communist Party swept weekend parliamentary elections. The protests turned violent Tuesday, with young people ransacking and looting the president's office and parliament. The authorities regained control of the situation Wednesday.

In Moscow, the Foreign Ministry portrayed the protests as a foreign-sponsored plot to overthrow Voronin, who like other long-serving post-Soviet leaders has enjoyed strong support from the Kremlin.

"Judging by the slogans shouted in the squares and the many Romanian flags in the hands of the organizers of this outrage, their aim is to discredit the achievements made toward strengthening Moldova's sovereignty," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement Wednesday.

The statement was apparently referring to the Romanian flags waved by some protesters and scattered calls for Moldova to be united with neighboring Romania.

Voronin himself denounced the protests as a Romanian-backed coup attempt, announcing that Moldova would introduce a visa regime with Romania and declaring Romania's ambassador to Moldova persona non grata.

He and the opposition asked European governments to intervene.

The EU has agreed to send a special envoy to Chisinau to monitor events, but there has been no talk of any direct role, a diplomat close to talks told Reuters.

Youth-backed color revolutions that ousted deeply entrenched leaders in Serbia in 2000, Georgia in 2003, Ukraine in 2004 and Kyrgyzstan in 2005 have ignited fears in the Kremlin, prompting a clampdown on the opposition and nongovernmental organizations and the creation of pro-Kremlin youth groups, including Nashi, to absorb youth political activism.

"The street tactics used in Moldova were that of a color revolution, but these developments are of no threat for us," Nashi leader Nikita Borovikov told The Moscow Times on Wednesday. "Regime change in our country is impossible because Russia's leadership is not passive and cowardly."

Nashi, which once brought tens of thousands of young people onto the streets, and other pro-Kremlin youth groups have kept a low profile after the ruling United Russia party cemented its grip on power in parliamentary elections in 2007.

While the current economic crisis has sparked some anti-government protests, none has come close to posing a challenge to the status quo.

So instead of worrying about whether Russians might catch the anti-government fervor from Moldova, the Kremlin needs to ponder why Voronin and the opposition have turned to the West to resolve their differences, analysts said.

Moldova's decision to shun Russia reveals a longtime fallacy of Russian diplomacy, where the Kremlin unequivocally stands by incumbent leaders in post-Soviet states and largely dismisses contacts with other political forces there, said Yulia Belikova, an analyst with the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies, a think tank that consults the Russian government on policy issues.

She said Russian officials needed to start working with opposition groups in other former Soviet republics, especially in Moldova. Moldova was separated from Romania by Soviet leader Josef Stalin in 1940, and the country has drifted back toward Romania after the Soviet collapse.

"If we're going to speak in terms of a color revolution, the West doesn't need to export it to Moldova. It is already there in the form of Romanian cultural and political influence," Belikova said.

This week's protests might also make it harder for Russia to mediate in Moldova's dispute with its Russian-leaning breakaway republic of Transdnestr, analysts said. It is one of the only post-Soviet conflicts where Moscow has portrayed itself as playing the "good cop" in seeking a resolution -- a role it has taken pains to highlight after its brief war with Georgia last August over Tbilisi's attempt to regain control of its breakaway region of South Ossetia.

President Dmitry Medvedev invited Voronin and the Transdnestr leader Igor Smirnov to Moscow earlier this year for negotiations.

The events in Moldova might give more power to the Transdnestr separatists, who could accuse Voronin of political weakness and an inability to curb Romanian nationalism.

The developments in Moldova also differ from a color revolution because the West is not openly supporting the opposition. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, the continent's top human rights body, reiterated on Wednesday elections observers' findings that the elections were fair.

The Kremlin will further shape its response to the protests after information surfaces about whether they were instigated solely by the Moldovan opposition or whether they were supported by Romania and other Western players, said Sergei Mikheyev, an analyst with the Center for Political Technologies.

At the moment, it seems unlikely that European powers or the United States would want to push for regime change in Moldova, Europe's poorest country located off major trade and energy routes, and risk spoiling their improving ties with Moscow, Mikheyev said.

"But we all have seen in the past how the West has assured Russia of its best intentions but at the same time acted to upset Russia's interests," he added.

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Roundup of blog coverage

Foto: azi.md

Picking through the online detritus, here are some of the reactions to the events in Chisinau from bloggers around the world:

Alina Stefanescu has a number of posts at her Totalitarianism Today and Romania Revealed blogs. One of them gets my award for headline of the day - "The Moldovan government is smoking crack and trying to convince others to smoke it as well."

Eternal Remont observed that - based on the violent behavior of the protesters - "This ain't no color revolution."

Kosmopolito posted some exclusive photos as well as the third part of a serial post by a guest blogger writing from Chisinau.

The unrest seems to be spawning new monikers daily (note that my use of "Grape Revolution" as a tag for these posts is pretty tongue-in-cheek - I needed a tag to keep all of the posts about the protests together, and that just happened to be the one I chose) - UN Dispatch tries out "#pman Revolution," and Dumitru Minzarari mentions (in a great post which has also attracted some worthwhile comments) another name that is apparently being used:
Now the communists and their Eastern “partners” are building a huge media myth to discredit the pure ideals of Moldovan youth willing nothing more than freedom and respect for their rights. Their protests were labeled the “Orphans’ Revolution” because under the Communist government close to a third of Moldovan citizens (their parents) went abroad to earn money for a living.
Minzarari has another post where he translates a Russian blog post that posits there may have been a deliberate decision by the authorities to allow the protesters to loot government buildings, presumably so that the protests would take on the character of a riot and their political demands would be discredited. If that was the plan, it may have worked. Somewhat relatedly, Minzarari also has an article at TOL dated April 7th about the Transnistria settlement process and headlined "Moscow Is Still the Master."

Sean has a post up focusing on the role of youth in the protests, noting that "unlike the innocuous colors of orange, tulip, and rose, the Moldovan youth appears to favor blood red."

I would be remiss if I didn't also point out GVO's main post so far on the situation in Moldova.

The "Updates" post at the Neighborhood blog by Nicu Popescu should be a good place to go for news.

Popescu has a couple of good posts at his Romanian-language blog, discussing the merits and effectiveness of non-violent protest and the degree to which Voronin has become a liability and a "factor of instability" for Moldova. I've taken a stab at translating portions of the latter post.

"The prospect that the Communist victory could lead to a situation where Voronin would remain the de facto head of state for another 4 years...is one of the key causes of the violent protests," writes Popescu. "During the 8 years of his presidency Voronin was seen as a symbol of stability, but today he has become the main factor in polarizing society." Popescu suggests that Voronin gracefully leave the political stage with a guarantee of immunity from prosecution - a la Yeltsin, I suppose - and continues:
The violent protests in Chisinau symbolize most of all that whatever stability there was in recent years has come to an end. Moldova is facing a turbulent period in which world economic instability, internal political cleavages and the personality of Vladimir Voronin could shatter the Republic of Moldova's fragile statehood.
Another outstanding Moldovan blogger (and, like the others, a proper specialist in real life), Alexandru Culiuc, has a post noting that he's seen a spike in traffic in recent days even though he hasn't had anything to say about the events in Chisinau. I translated a part of his post, in which he refuses to weigh in on the events of the week other than to pose a disturbing question:
Having access to a relatively limited set of sources of information, it is difficult for me to give a balanced assessment of the situation. Nevertheless, I daresay that the phrase "Revolution in Chisinau," which aboundes in the headlines of news items on Romanian websites, is inappropriate. It is quite possible that after some time has passed the recent events in downtown Chisinau will come to be characterized rightly as the greatest man-made calamity Moldova has endured since the war in Transnistria. And just like with the conflict in Transnistria, no one is to blame and no one takes responsibility - everyone points their fingers at each other. Will the outcome really be so disastrous? I don't know, but I don't think we'll have long to wait for an answer to that question.
In the Russian blogosphere, "'Color Revolution' in Moldova" is the number one blogged about topic according to Yandex, which counts over 3,700 posts on that theme in the past three days. Here is one which is at least somewhat humorous in places, although it displays an attitude of condescension toward Moldovans which is all too typical among Russian bloggers.

Natalia Morari, one of the organizers of the initial, peaceful proitests and a popular topic of discussion in the Russian blogosphere in her own right, resurfaced Wednesday with another post justifying the protest organizers' actions, which has already attracted over 900 comments. If they are anything like the comments to other recent posts, they probably contain numerous vicious personal attacks on her and surprisingly few messages of support.

Some commenters seem to be questioning Morari's political judgement - like this one, who wonders why Morari wore an "I love Obama" T-shirt to a rally in Chisinau, "knowing that color revolution activists are forever facing accusations of being pro-American puppets. And in that situation, to give your opponents such a tasty morsel..."

Morari's husband, fellow New Times journalist Ilya Barabanov, is apparently also now in Moldova and posted a wild-eyed and completely incredible (by which I mean, not credible) rumor of weapons being flown into the country from Russia and transported from the airport to downtown Chisinau in ambulances.

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The Gray Lady's Moldova coverage


Although there have been very credible reports that some foreign journalists have had a difficult time getting into Moldova, the New York Times has a correspondent on the ground. This means that Americans will read about events in Moldova in the national paper of record and perhaps I'll no longer have to explain to people where the country is located (though perhaps I shouldn't get my hopes up).

The paper's main recent articles are here and here, and the comments page to the first one has a wealth of thoughtful Moldovan voices (+1 more) occupying various points of view but mostly seeming to agree that Tuesday's violence was unacceptable. There are not many other places I can think of where one could see a relatively articulate debate about events in Moldova conducted in English.

In addition, the NYT has updated its Moldova topic page, which is a quite fortunate since in the past I recall it being a bit sparse - perhaps in part because articles about Moldova in the NYT seemed to run no more frequently than once every two months.

[Bonus bit for followers of other protest-prone post-Soviet countries - on the eve of opposition rallies in Tbilisi, the NYT's The Lede blog has a hilarious but also illuminating piece about the latest (semi-manufactured) scandal surrounding Saak, titled "A President, His Masseuse and Her Blog"]

Finally, the NYT has an op-ed on the situation in Moldova by Andrew Wilson, the guy who literally wrote the book on the Orange Revolution. It's definitely worth reading in full:
Europe’s Next Revolution?
By ANDREW WILSON
New York Times, April 8, 2009

The demonstrations in the Moldovan capital of Chisinau after last Sunday’s elections are not like Ukraine’s “Orange Revolution” in 2004. Most obviously, they have been far from peaceful. Nor have they been provoked by incontrovertible evidence of massive voting fraud. The demonstrators just don’t like the governing party: Moldova is the only European country where a nominally “Communist” party has won largely free and fair elections, in 2001 and 2005.

So why the protests? The Communists fought dirty in the campaign, but not as dirty as others in the region. Regional TV was harassed, but the main national opposition channel stayed open. Businesses were pressured to sever ties with the opposition and the president reminded voters none too subtly who would pay for their new schools. Nothing was done to make voting easier for the hundreds of thousands of Moldovans abroad, who were less likely to vote for the Communists.

But Moldova is still a relatively open country. Its people have access to Romanian, Ukrainian and Russian mass media. There is no single economic player of which ownership would effectively grant control of the whole country — like Gazprom in Russia. In 2007, 51 percent of Moldovan exports went to the E.U. and only 17 percent to Russia. Even Transnistria, a major producer of steel and cement, trades mainly with Europe.

So the Communists may have padded the result. The official exit poll gave them 45 percent of the vote and they claimed exactly 50 percent — compared with 46 percent in 2005 and less than 40 percent in local elections in 2007. But the result was not a total steal. The main opposition parties, the pro-European Liberals and Liberal-Democrats, only won around 13 percent each, and the “Our Moldova” alliance just under 10 percent.

But the Communists need 61 out of the 101 seats to elect the next president and other officials. Their leader, President Vladimir Voronin, has served his maximum two terms: The most likely outcome is for him to become chairman of Parliament and for Moldova to “rediscover” that it is actually a parliamentary republic.

Funnily enough, the Communists are forecast to get exactly 61 seats. In 2005 they had to make an alliance with the Christian Democrats — who suffered in the long-term, losing their traditional pro-Romanian electorate and ending up with only 3 percent of the vote. This time, the Communists will not need to make alliances: They can easily pick off one or two businessmen from the other three parties’ lists.

A second reason for the protests has been the Communists’ flirtation with Russia. Moldova’s foreign policy has swung back and forth in recent years, but Mr. Voronin has conducted a largely pro-E.U. course since 2003. Yet in a close contest this time, he relied heavily on Moscow as an election resource.

This trend could well continue. Russia is seeking to settle the dispute with the separatist “Transnistrian Republic” on its own terms. It is also seeking to buy up assets such as power plants in Chisinau and Balti, which now look relatively cheap.

A third factor is that Moldova is yet another country facing economic crisis. It has artificially prolonged a boom in local consumption through the April elections, financed by external remittances from as many as 500,000 Moldovans working in the E.U. and 344,000 in Russia — sums that once comprised a third of GDP. Mr. Voronin’s circle takes a cut on imports and on construction fueled by remittances — and so has tried to keep the cycle going for more than the usual electoral reasons. But imports are now three times exports and customs duties make up 70 percent of budget revenues. A crunch is coming.

When it does, the E.U. has a number of cards to play. Visas are a huge issue for Moldovans working legally or illegally in the E.U. The E.U. Border Monitoring Mission has helped cut down on corruption and the trafficking of people and drugs through Transnistria. Moldova may soon have to go cap-in-hand to the I.M.F.

Moldova may be a small country, but it is one of the region’s few democracies. And it is symptomatic of a broader trend. In the global economic crisis there is a real risk of the E.U. stepping back from the “eastern neighborhood” as it plunges into ever deeper crises. Russia, on the other hand, does not fall back on utilitarian thinking in times of crisis. It is investing to win influence in the future.

Andrew Wilson is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

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"Down with the communist magnates"!

Unimedia continued its regularly updated English-language play-by-play account of events in Chisinau on Wednesday, posting yet another gallery of photos and a link to this interesting flier which was apparently being circulated on the main square downtown this evening.

It reads at first glance like a crazy, exclamation-point-abusing combination of the laments of downtrodden migrant workers the world over with something that might have appeared in a Soviet newspaper during the late Gorbachev period:

http://unimedia.md/docs/declaratie-protest.jpg

However, it gets to the heart of many of the issues that analysts are spilling a lot of pixels trying to explain today. The document states that it is the "first official declaration" of the protesters and reads, in part, as follows (my translation):
We are many, we are young, we are united! We will go to the very end[.]

You can't control us any longer!

We are sick and tired of tolerating a totalitarian regime, which relies on fear and terror!

Communism is responsible for the largest genocide in history!

We don't want to be ruled by those who killed or deported our parents or grandparents! [...]

We do not want extreme solutions* - we request the President be put on trial according to the Constitution!

We're not engaged in anyone else's politics and we are not paid by anyone!

We are not of any political color - we are pure and transparent!

Down with the communist magnates who send us to do menial work and steal our money even from Western Union!

The luxury furniture and parquet in the Presidential and Parliamentary buildings were bought with the commission fees from currency exchanges!

We don't want to go to Italy, Portugal or Spain!

We don't want to go to Canada or Moscow!


We want to work and be paid in our own country!

We want a country based on respect and trust, not on fear and shakedowns!
* Presumably this is intended to reassure Voronin that a Ceausescu-like fate is not envisioned for him.

This is much more of an emotional appeal than the declaration released by the just-formed People's Anticommunist Coalition 2009, the full text of which is available in English at this post by Nicu Popescu, which is growing longer and longer with updates by the hour.

[Update April 9] Unimedia has published its own English translation of the document shown above, which translates the full document and is mostly intelligible except for one particularly humorous mistake: they have the protesters proclaiming, "Down with the communist magnets[!]"

Perhaps this is a Freudian slip, because - with no disrespect to the young people whose boiling-over frustration is so well expressed in the declaration above - if emotional declarations with limited policy proposals are the best the opposition can muster, they may again find the ruling Communists exerting a force of attraction among the population.

Note that - as I mentioned above - this is in fact not the best the opposition can do; there is another, more articulate declaration making the rounds. Read it midway down the page here.

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Roundup of English-language media reports

http://alina_stefanescu.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341ce39f53ef011570017741970b-pi
A ditty from the protests (most likely the ones in Chisinau but possibly
from the demonstrations of support in Bucharest) which reads,

"Three women went to vote
Two of them dead and one of them living
How many votes does that make?"

Not an idle question these days in Chisinau, apparently.
[image source]

There is now so much Moldova-related content on the interwebs that it's impossible to keep up. Below is an attempt at a roundup of some of the English-language coverage from Wednesday.

ITAR-TASS ran a story with some alarming remarks from Voronin:
The Moldovan authorities “may resort to force, if unrest is resumed in Chisinau,” President Vladimir Voronin said here on Wednesday. Speaking at a meeting of Moldovan leaders, he stressed that he had warned the opposition of such a possibility.

“There is limit to our patience. Yesterday I was on the verge of giving the order. The authorities have every reason to resort to force in accordance with the law. I warned the opposition that they could be put not to the parliament, but to some other place. They should learn to lose with dignity,” Voronin stressed.
RFE/RL has had a number of articles on this week's events in Chisinau: "Moldovan President Accuses Romania as Protests Continue"; "Moldovan President Vows to Repel 'Coup' After Protests Turn Violent"; and (although I am a bit weary of the "Twitter Revolution" meme) "The Revolution Will Be Tweeted - Moldovan Protesters Exploit Social Networking Sites."

An AP story reporting the status quo as of Wednesday morning.

Reuters reports on the Russian Foreign Ministry's reaction to the events in Chisinau, covers the opposition's reaction to the Central Election Committee's apparent refusal to abide by the agreement reached with Voronin to conduct a recount, and - in a most interesting story that I haven't seen elsewhere - reports that ratings agency Fitch has warned Moldova's sovereign credit rating will be at risk of being downgraded if the unrest persists.

Moldovan news portal Azi.md has some photos from inside the heavily damaged Parliament building and, on their English-language page, an article quoting one of the OSCE election observers as follows:
"Our report was much too warm and friendly towards that vote. The problem is that it was an OSCE report. The OSCE includes the Russ ians. And the Russians' view was quite substantially different from my own, for example."
The BBC has some audio from an interview with the same observer, discussing her "grave misgivings" about the results. This could be an important bit of ammo for the opposition in the rhetorical (hopefully) battles to come - if they can't at least show substantial reason to believe that there was substantial falsification of election results, they will not get traction with many within Moldova or with the Western countries and organizations they may be hoping to rely on for moral support.

The Economist's coverage is headlined "Moldova Burning" but does a good job of stepping back from the flames and focusing on the roles of Russia, Romania and the EU in the turmoil and its possible resolution:
The political upheavals cry out for attention from the EU, which has failed to get to grips with Moldova’s ills. As with Ukraine’s orange revolution five years ago, it may take a heavyweight outsider to get talks going between entrenched but discredited authorities and an enthusiastic but incoherent opposition. If Europe cannot solve Moldova’s problems, it is hard to see much future for the trumpeted “Eastern Partnership” which is meant to reinvigorate EU policies towards the six ex-Soviet countries on its eastern borders.
An op-ed in the Kyiv Post chronicles some of the more unsavory remarks made by certain Moldovan opposition figures in the past but probably paints with too broad a brush in suggesting that the country is "Torn Between the Communists and the Far Right." One of those who comes in for criticism in the piece is Iurie Rosca, whose party didn't make it into parliament this time but who has been outspoken about his suspicion that the situation in Chisinau has unfolded according to Moscow's plans, in part as punishment for Voronin's refusal in 2003 to sign the Kozak Memorandum, a Russia-backed plan for settling the conflict over Transnistria.

Russia Profile has two pieces worth checking out - one discussing the the cleavages in Moldovan society which drove the protesters to feel sufficiently "insulted and humiliated" to take to the streets, and another, which seems to have been written before the protests but provides good background on the campaign, the elections and the Moldovan political scene:

Voronin has openly stated that he would pursue a Den Xiaoping outcome, allowing him to continue to determine the country's trajectory while not holding the highest office. This lent the Communist Party a powerful motive to force through an unchallengeable electoral result, similar to that achieved by United Russia in the 2007 Duma elections in Russia, intended as a future power base for then President Vladimir Putin. [...]

Moldova is not only anomalous in terms of its constitution and its geography (it counts as a Black Sea littoral state although it is landlocked). It is also one of the few countries to be both attempting to reintegrate a secessionist region -- the tiny self-proclaimed Transdnestr republic--while staving off attempts to be absorbed by the neighboring big brother Romania, with which it shares history and language.

Its foreign policy is equally anomalous: in the 1990s, Moldova strove to reunify with Russia within the Russia-Belarus union, until Russia's refusal to play ball caused the same Communist Party to make a smooth shift in 2005, and aim at EU membership and cooperation with NATO instead. Experts see the elections as having paradoxically strengthened the Communists in negotiations with the EU, and thus given new impulses to Moldova’s integration with the union.

Independent political analyst Ion Marandici said that "the Moldovan Communists have declared very often that their goal is to join the European Union. That is why, paradoxically, they will go on with the economic reforms while continuing to infringe on media freedom, freedom of expression and more generally on human rights, in order to combat their political competitors."

The Moldovan government has cranked up its rather creaky English-language online outlet, the website of state-run wire agency Moldpres, so you can read about the opposition's bad acts there. And here's the official text of the Moldovan MFA's statement declaring the Romanian ambassador persona non grata.

And if you're looking for a very long and thorough recap of Tuesday's events laced with commentary, check out "Chronicles of a Post-Electoral Day" on Moldova.org (which also has lots of video clips, even one from a demonstration of support in Dublin, Ireland). The piece suggests that Western representatives in Moldova misread the situation after the elections (although to be fair the protests took many Moldovans by surprise as well):

A few days ago, ahead of the protests, the author of these lines was invited to speak in front of the EU Ambassadors in Moldova – they were told that the liberals might have three options – accept the election results that they believe were long-frauded, attempt a protest scenario as in “orange revolution” in Ukraine or protest and slowly fade away, like in Belarus. A good number of Ambassadors laughed when they’ve heard about Moldovan opposition organising protests like in Ukraine, diplomats basically showing there will be no support for such a scenario. Many of them, probably, are rethinking this scenario now – one thing is clear, they were far behind the events.

The signals of lack of support that the West is now giving to Moldovan liberals are read by the Communists in one simple manner – they feel their impunity to orchestrate any scenario and get away with it. Just like in the times when the West left the Belarus opposition alone.

The liberals are now feeling somehow abandoned, maybe even afraid. They want a rule of law Moldova, they do not want destruction and they wish no connection with it. However, they need to take a final decision and they understand that they are left with no way back. Its “[either] – or”. Its: Europe or Belarus.

Let’s hope that Europe will not be far behind the events at least this time.

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Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Roundup of Russian - and other - MSM coverage

[Click to expand, or go to the original source to see the image at full size]

First, for all you English-only types, here's the NYT's latest report on the goings-on in Chisinau.

The following is just a selection of the Russian-language media's coverage of the situation in Moldova. For more coverage, visit Yandex's news aggregator or Russian-language Google News.

Above is RIA Novosti's map of the protests which unfolded on Monday and Tuesday. All of their coverage of the story can be found here.

RIA Novosti also has some stories about the events in English, reporting most recently that President Voronin has blamed Romania for the demonstrations, which he referred to as an attempted coup, he has expelled the Romanian ambassador and established a visa regime with Moldova's neighbor.

The BBC's Russian Service reports that Voronin also accused "the wealthiest sponsors" of the unrest of having already fled the country. Presumably he is referring to the Moldovan opposition's local backers in the business community. There's an active debate underway in the BBC's forum on the subject.

Lenta.ru's coverage of the story can be found here, I'll highlight this article as worth checking out for its bizarreness - the Eurasian Youth Union has apparently criticized Voronin for being unable to contain the protests and suggested that he should have used Vlad-the-Impaler-type methods instead.

Kommersant also reports on the introduction of a visa regime with Romania and has a story on the protests headlined "The First Anti-Communist [War]." Kommersant also has some video posted:



Vedomosti reports that the Russian Duma will be discussing the situation in Moldova today - not that they're likely to be of much use.

Gazeta.ru has a story suggesting things have quieted down in Chisinau and an interview with opposition leader Mihai Ghimpu in which he blames the authorities for yesterday's violence, disavows the seizure of government buildings and claims that the police "opened the door" and let protesters in.

Ezhednevnyi Zhurnal's Sergei Buntman has a commentary piece that compares the Moldovan protesters unfavorably to Ukraine's Orange Revolutionaries and suggests that their actions more closely resemble the riots in Moscow in 2002 which were occasioned by Russia's loss to Japan in a soccer match. He also draws a parallel to the violent overthrow of Ceausescu in 1989, remarking that the protests in Chisinau are "fanatical and very Romanian" in more ways than one.

NTV reports protesters downtown again on Wednesday (see here for the text of their report):

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