Will he or won't he?

Andy at Siberian Light has a thorough discussion of the possibility that Khodorkovsky might mount a jailhouse campaign for a State Duma seat, which is definitely worth checking out. Kommersant has fresh coverage of this story today in English ("From the Cell to the Chamber"), including the following forecast on how things might play out if Mikhail Borisovich does decide to take the plunge:

The only one obstacle that can prevent Mikhail Khodorkovksy from running for the Duma seat may be the Moscow City Court’s expedited hearing of the appeal against the verdict of the Meshchansky Court. Should the conviction be upheld, Khodorkovsky will lose his eligibility for office. If the consideration of the case in the second instance gets protracted, the former head of YUKOS may have time to get registered and even be elected, which is not that unlikely given that the Universitetsky district has steadily voted for right-wing candidates since 1993. However, even in this case the Duma’s majority, represented by the pro-Kremlin United Russia party, is sure to strip the new deputy of his immunity from the further prosecution and to give the Moscow City Court a chance to see the YUKOS case through.

Commentator Leonid Radzikhovsky has an opinion piece in the excellent Ezhednevny Zhurnal which deals all at once with and analyzes several developments surrounding Khodorkovsky and Yukos. I've translated a couple of paragraphs which deal with the possibility of the jailed oligarch running for the Duma:

"And God Disposes" 11 August 2005, 11:59am

[...] Another story related to MBKh [Khodorkovsky] is his possible candidacy to become a [State Duma] deputy. It's clear that MBKh won't be allowed for one reason or another to participate in elections - after all, the authorities didn't put him in jail so that they could see him in the Duma! But what's much more interesting is something else: what would his real chances be if he were able to stand in an election after all? I don't know what percentage of voters would vote for Khodorkovsky for President, but in any list of local district candidates he would be the best known, the most sensational, and the most scandalous, and this alone already halfway guarantees success.

And the [voters'] choice would not be a simple one. Voting "against" [Khodorkovsky], you would thereby be voting "in favor of" - in favor of his remaining in jail. Possibly, such a situation could cause even supporters of [Khodorkovsky's] sentence to waver, after all it's one thing to agree in general, and another thing entirely to personally sign such a sentence (and a vote "against" would in fact be a personal, albeit anonymous, signature under the sentence). On the other hand, the people [narod] are not sentimental when it comes to billionaires, and, Khodorkovsky's "left turns" [a reference to one of Khodorkovsky's recent article in Vedomosti] notwithstanding, just keep repeating, "they'll lock you up anyway, but don't you steal!" [Russian idiom that I'm not sure I've translated 100% correctly - trans.]

Well, and the most important thing: this would be not just a vote on the "Khodorkovsky question," but on the "Putin question," it would to some extent show the real feelings of people toward the authorities and to their most implacable foe. If Khodorkovsky (as many are certain) were to receive an insignificant percentage of votes, this would become for him both a personal drama (his illusions about the people would be destroyed) and a sobering moment. But if he were to come close to winning or actually make it into the Duma, then that would be a small political earthquake, and perhaps a portent of larger tremors.

What a pity that this unique poll, this unique socio-political and psychological experiment, won't take place. And, of course, it won't take place. [...]

Radzikhovsky, then, is certain that ways will be found to prevent Khodorkovsky from actually standing in a by-election or an election, and I tend to agree with him. I do hope that Mikhail Borisovich moves forward with this, though, because it will be interesting to see how exactly the authorities manage to shut his candidacy down.

If they use clumsy enough methods (and based on the Russian authorities' track record on dealing with situations like this, they probably will), all they'll do is cement Khodorkovsky's reputation as a modern-day dissident and a political prisoner. For this reason, the cynic in me thinks that he should go ahead and start campaigning - it will be good for his image in the long run. And the idealist in me also thinks he should do it, to exercise his rights as a citizen and to continue to bring attention to the inanity of his imprisonment. Along with many other Russia-watchers and Russians, I eagerly await further developments in this story.