From one unknown to another

Farewell, Mr. Fradkov - we hardly knew ye. In 2004, when Mikhail Fradkov ascended to the Prime Minister's chair, it seemed as though he was selected for his greyness, his unspectacular neutrality and inability to compete with Putin for the spotlight - he was the perfect antidote to the man he replaced, Mikhail Kasyanov, who was by then one of the final remnants of the Yeltsin years and was increasingly at odds with Putin. Consider this humorous portrayal of the general perception of Fradkov. Ever the loyal servant, Fradkov has now tendered his resignation, linking it to "upcoming large political events in the country."

Immediate speculation (reported by the BBC, among others) was that Sergei Ivanov would become Prime Minister, and that this would be the revelation that everyone's been waiting for of Putin's choice of successor. In an early version of its story about Fradkov's resignation (no longer linkable, and it may just be a story they picked up from the RIAN wire), speculating about Ivanov's coming promotion, Vedomosti even had the following paragraph, which bears the familiar musk of Kremlinological tea-leaf-reading:

Since the beginning of the summer Ivanov has been prominent on the domestic political scene: he has been influencing policy related to the creation of state corporations in the areas of nanotechnologies, united aircraft- and ship-building, and others, says Troika Dialog chief economist Evgenii Gavrilenkov. The President often appears in public next to Ivanov. At the end of June, Putin and Ivanov inspected military hardware in Rostov-on-Don, sampled the local bread and took a ride on a combine; in August, they participated in a meeting of the State Council in Astrakhan' and visited a sturgeon-breeding center; more recently they watched flight shows at the MAKS airshow together.

There was also this bylined Vedomosti piece today headlined "Medvedev Awaits the Reshuffle," discussing rumors that Ivanov would be tapped for the PM job and suggesting that Dmitry Medvedev's chances in the 2008 succession battle may be waning (Medvedev and Ivanov, of course, have been set up by Putin and the media as the two main contenders to take over the presidency in 2008). That article added to the list of Sergei and Vladimir's recent dates:

Putin and Ivanov were also together at City Day celebrations in Moscow and arrived in Kamchatka together on September 5.

Medvedev appeared with Putin only on Moscow's City Day.

This tendency [of Ivanov appearing more with Putin] is apparent in the media as well: Putin and Ivanov appeared in the same news stories one and a half times more often than Putin and Medvedev (see graphic on page A1 [sadly, I can't find this online]), according to research from Medialogiia, and the difference is especially great on television: in August, the score was 33 to 8 in Ivanov's favor; in September, 42 to 26. [translations of these Vedomosti excerpts are by me]

It seems, however, that in spite of all the tea-leaf-reading by the media and all the time spent with his bff Seryoga, VVP is not ready to tip his hand regarding the 2008 question. So, according to RIAN and to the updated Vedomosti story, his nominee for the position of Prime Minister will be (like his nominee to replace Sergei Ivanov as Defense Minister) a taxman, Viktor Zubakov. According to his RIA Novosti bio, Zubakov spent most of the '90s as the head of the St. Petersburg tax inspectorate. He had a long career in agricultural management during the Soviet era, but it took him only a brief period as the deputy head of the St. Petersburg Mayor's committee on external relations (1992-93) to step into the lakomyi (sweet) job of the city's chief taxman, which he held from 1993 to 1998. Fradkov, it's worth noting, had also been involved with tax enforcement before becoming PM, as head of the Tax Police from 2001-03.

He stayed in the tax service until 2001, when he became head of the Finance Ministry's committee on financial monitoring; he has headed the Federal Financial Monitoring Service (RosFinMonitoring) since it was created in 2004 (their website seems to be down, but Rambler has it cached). Interestingly, RIAN refers to Zubkov's current position as being head of "finrazvedka," which I guess is what you could call a financial monitoring service, but it sort of seems like they're saying - don't worry, he's another paren' iz razvedki - from Piter, no less - so he'll take care of things just like VVP et al. Approval by the Duma will likely be pro forma and swift, some of the procedural aspects are discussed briefly in this RIAN explanatory note to this article about the changes.

So, much like Fradkov, who came pretty much out of nowhere, at first glance it seems Zubakov may be another technocratic placeholder in the PM's seat, a way for VVP to continue deferring a final decision on the all-important 2008 question. On the other hand, Zubakov appears to be from the St. Petersburg team and therefore cannot be considered an outsider, as Fradkov was in 2004 - and perhaps I'm out of the loop and Zubkov is actually weighty enough to be considered a darkhorse to take over from Putin next year. Anyway, I'll leave the analyzing to the professionals - no doubt the speculation will come fast and furious in the next few days.

[image sources - Fradkov, BBC; Zubkov, Vedomosti]